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<SPAN
>I don't think you guys
realize it but from what Iv'e been reading you agree more than you
disagree. Fred, listen to what guys like Dimitris and Jason are
saying. They are telling you that that they do have a "system" but it is
not just one formula that they run on their computers like the one you displayed
in the last week or so. That was as nice as any I've ever heard of and had
some very pretty graphs and I would aspire to have something like that as I am
sure most anyone here would. But what do we do if we don’t have something like
that? Give up and go work at
McDonald’s because it doesn’t fit your deifintion of “Robust”? Should we not
trade because our equity curve doesn’t have the right slope and way too many big
yellow triangles? Should we back off because we didn’t’ optimize over the
periods you think are proper?<SPAN
><?xml:namespace prefix = o ns =
"urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />
<SPAN
>
<SPAN
>Dimitris, Jason and
others that are out there on the firing lines MAKING MONEY on a consistent basis
have a number of different pieces that form a "system" to do the things
necessary to “MAKE MONEY on a consistent basis”. For me that’s the
definition of “Robust”!!
<SPAN
>
<SPAN
>They also post a lot
of code and examples of what they are thinking about and working with rather
than the philosophy of system design. Your contribution has been different and
thought provoking in its own way. The formula you provided for the equity
calculation as excellent and most appreciated by me at least.<SPAN
> And I really enjoy the discussions
you’ve provoked on how optimizations should be done.
<SPAN
>
<SPAN
>BUT you seem to be at
odds with Dimitris most of the time and want to challenge him on his
methods. I think you ought to relax
and just let him do his thing. He’s bright enough to understand what you have
been telling him and in his own way he’s been telling you that he does. HIS main
interest is in presenting new ideas to us on the use of the AFL language and
developing indicators that work in the time frame that he’s chosen.
<SPAN
>
<SPAN
>So rather than try to
butt heads with Dimitris I for one would really like for you to discuss how you
have developed/assembled or however you did it to get to your “robust”
system. How about
it?
<SPAN
>
<SPAN
>Respectfully,
<SPAN
>
<SPAN
>d
<SPAN
>
<FONT
face="Times New Roman"> -----Original
Message-----From: Fred <fctonetti@xxxxxxxxx>
[mailto:fctonetti@xxxxxxxxx] Sent: Wednesday, February 19, 2003 9:11
AMTo: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: [amibroker] Re:
The transcendental use of Data: An application
I am curious as to what others think
about this ?Yuki ? Dingo ? Herman ? Jayson ? Grahm ? Others
?--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS
<TSOKAKIS@xxxx>" <TSOKAKIS@xxxx> wrote:> Fred,>
thank you for the interesting question.> As I have already replied, the
market will not change by an overnight > switch.> And, there
is a more important question : Is there ANY reason for the > market
to change ?> 99 period was there, it is a dream [or a nightmare...] and
almost > impossible to be repeated.> I try with various methods
to immitate the market behavior and apply > it for the near
future.> If the market profile would change, MANY Breath Indicators
will give > CLEAR warnings and I will check very carefully to
confirm them.> The most recent example was last October, when my RSIt
reacted at > relatively high levels [this is the way the market will
leave behind > its bearish mood]> The last month, instead of
a confirmation, I have to dissappoint you, > nothing hapened, may
be the next time !!> So, instead of being affraid of an [unrealistic,
for me] bullish > expansion, I prefer to FOLLOW the market without
prejudice.> The market is bearish and will remain bearish for a long
time. We > will have some good bullish trends two or three per year
[and it it > good to be there !!!] and then back to basics [or
lower].> Frankly speaking, the pre-2000 period does not exist for me
and any > research of mine.> Of course, this is nothing but a
personal opinion.> Dimitris> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx,
"Fred <fctonetti@xxxx>" > <fctonetti@xxxx> wrote:>
> DT,> > > > I keep asking the same question with
regards to your posts like > this, > > but I don't think
they're reaching your mailbox.> > > > Why have you picked
1/2000 as the date to optimize forward from ? > > Don't
you think this is somewhat dangerous to optimize since > slightly
> > before the beginning of the current bear market as many traders
> would > > have after the fact found it dangerous in the
very late 90's to > > optimize over the last several years of the
bull at that time ? To > > me this is an accident waiting
to happen. I don't understand how > it > > could be
otherwise.> > > > Please explain your thinking in this
regard.> > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Dimitris
Tsokakis" > <TSOKAKIS@xxxx> > > wrote:> >
> A. > > > I trade BEAS. > > > Its
performance with the smoothed D-ratio5 is poor. 3/21 winning > >
combinations when D1=Optimize("D1",42,30,50,1); and the best gives
> > > some +115% in 3 years. Nothing important for 57 dangerous
trades.> > > But, BEAS may give great results, much better
than +1000% with a > > lot of systems.> > >
B.> > > I do not trade TMPW and I know almost nothing about it.
> > > For me, TMPW is a 5-D vector [O, H, L, C, V] in the wild
> > StockMarket vector space.> > > TMPW is in the top10
list for D-ratio5 trading over the whole > N100 > > market,
according to my earlier post.> > > Its D-ratio5 curve gives
"good" signals for the majority of the > > stocks.> > >
For D1=42, for example, it sends BEAS profits to >+1000% and it > is
> > not coincidental, since the whole market profits are +450%
with> > > >75% profitable stocks.[It is not a holy grail, it
is a real > > fighter, you should take all the risk to trade it, but
75% is a > > respectable percentage]> > > C. >
> > I "borrowed" TMPW clear Buy signal on Valentines day, Feb14 to
> Buy > > BEAS [and CSCO] on the next bar Open.> >
> The Open was cool, the day was great, some cables traffic 15 min
> > before the end [life is not as easy as backtesting] plus my
broker> > > advise to sell tomorrow, but the sell order was an
order, it was > a > > clear take-the-money-and-run
session, the system will make its own > > profits,> >
> statistics is an additive science [linear or not].> > > CSCO
will pay the expenses, BEAS will pay the research, I should >
> learn something for TMPW, perhaps it is a great company.> >
> D.> > > I will refill my hot coffee and try to understand
what I was > doing > > yesterday.> > > Dimitris
Tsokakis> > > PS. In the case you are interested, optimize your
favorite stocks > > or the whole market with> > >
/*The transcendental use of Data for D-ratio5 indicator> > > by
D. Tsokakis, Feb 2003> > > Optimize the "current" stock or the
whole group/sector/market > from > > Jan2000 till
now*/> > > NUM=Optimize("NUM",93,0,100,1);> > >
D1=Optimize("D1",42,30,50,1);> > > N=> > > >
> > WriteIf(NUM==0,"^NDX",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==1,"AAPL",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==2,"ADBE",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==3,"ADCT",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==4,"ALTR",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==5,"AMAT",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==6,"AMGN",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==7,"AMZN",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==8,"APCC",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==9,"APOL",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==10,"BBBY",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==11,"BEAS",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==12,"BGEN",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==13,"BMET",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==14,"BRCD",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==15,"BRCM",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==16,"CDWC",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==17,"CEPH",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==18,"CHIR",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==19,"CHKP",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==20,"CHRW",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==21,"CIEN",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==22,"CMCSA",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==23,"CMVT",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==24,"COST",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==25,"CPWR",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==26,"CSCO",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==27,"CTAS",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==28,"CTXS",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==29,"DELL",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==30,"DISH",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==31,"DLTR",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==32,"EBAY",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==33,"ERICY",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==34,"ERTS",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==35,"ESRX",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==36,"EXPD",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==37,"FAST",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==38,"FHCC",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==39,"FISV",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==40,"FLEX",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==41,"GENZ",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==42,"GILD",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==43,"GNTX",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==44,"HGSI",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==45,"HSIC",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==46,"ICOS",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==47,"IDPH",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==48,"INTC",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==49,"INTU",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==50,"IVGN",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==51,"JDSU",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==52,"JNPR",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==53,"KLAC",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==54,"LAMR",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==55,"LLTC",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==56,"LNCR",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==57,"MCHP",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==58,"MEDI",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==59,"MERQ",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==60,"MLNM",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==61,"MOLX",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==62,"MSFT",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==63,"MXIM",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==64,"NTAP",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==65,"NVDA",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==66,"NVLS",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==67,"NXTL",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==68,"ORCL",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==69,"PAYX",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==70,"PCAR",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==71,"PDCO",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==72,"PETM",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==73,"PIXR",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==74,"PSFT",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==75,"PTEN",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==76,"QCOM",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==77,"QLGC",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==78,"RFMD",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==79,"ROST",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==80,"RYAAY",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==81,"SANM",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==82,"SBUX",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==83,"SEBL",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==84,"SIAL",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==85,"SNPS",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==86,"SPLS",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==87,"SPOT",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==88,"SSCC",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==89,"SUNW",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==90,"SYMC",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==91,"TEVA",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==92,"TLAB",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==93,"TMPW",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==94,"USAI",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==95,"VRSN",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==96,"VRTS",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==97,"WFMI",> > > > > >
WriteIf(NUM==98,"XLNX",> > > > > > WriteIf>
> >
(NUM==99,"XRAY","YHOO"))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))>
> ))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))));> > >
> > > H=Foreign(N,"H");L=Foreign(N,"L");> > >
Dratio=1000*(H-L)/(H+L);RRR=DEMA(Dratio,5);RRRR=DEMA(RRR,10);> >
> D2=D1;> > > F1=RRRR>=D2;F2=RRRR<=D1;> > >
Sell=F2;Buy=F1;Buy=ExRem(Buy,Sell);Sell=ExRem(Sell,Buy);> > >
Short=Sell;Cover=Buy;Short=ExRem(Short,Cover);Cover=ExRem> >
(Cover,Short);> > > > > > I think I will repeat the
experiment...Post
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