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--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Herman van den Bergen"
<psytek@xxxx> wrote:
> This may come as a shocker to you....but I don't even know whether
the
> market today is bear, bull or flat :-) frankly: i don't care. Also
i have no
> clue as where the market is going... I don't care here either. Of
course the
> reason is that I don't think much about these market qualities is
because i
> have never been able to quantify them to my satisfaction. I do
know that the
> systems I like best sail through major up-and-downs without a
hiccup, I love
> that quality. Good oscillator systems tend to do that on a small
selection
> of stocks.
>
> One may note that in many systems the only relevant data is recent
data,
> perhaps 5-20 bars; anything farther back cannot have any effect on
your
> signals, so you don't really have to worry about it. Same goes
forward....
> many of us would love to know where the market is going (Buy-n-
Holders?) but
> for the active trader anything ahead by more than a few bars is
immaterial.
> If your system doesn't respond within a few bars you'll be losing
money. So
> really, that removes 99% of your data history from your current
trading
> concerns: you have just removed 99% of your worries :-) of course
during
> development things are different.
>
> Also, if my system has any price following characteristics, here i
mean that
> the equity curve looks similar to a scaled-up price chart, I
discard it. It
> means that the system can not deal with both Bull and Bear
situations
> satisfactory.
>
> just mho,
> Herman.
>
Huge snip!
Your point is well made. You are living in the real world, that is
what I have been trying to express, Especially the statement "If
your system doesn't respond in a few bars you are losing money".
History is history and thats all. You can't look into the future
(at least I can't) so you must be nimble with the present.
I remember the bear market of the 70's, it was brutal, over 50%
of the mutual funds went under. Sure the indexes have gone down
but the money is still in the market. I don't think we have seen the
affect of people pulling their money out of the funds yet.
The true test is that you make money no matter which way the
overall market goes. Even on the worst days hundreds of stocks
went up.
I haven't the slightest clue where the market is going either,
but I will seek all the profit I can find. Your comment on a
group of stocks is timely(I do the same). I think the real
secret is finding predictability among the chaos.
Cliff s
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