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<SPAN
class=939284213-11102002>DT,
A good
read! IMO the events of yesterday and the (apparent) follow through of today are
not yet compelling for a Long side bias. Remember Monday just a short while
ago?? The market is tired of selling and looks to ANY minor event to try a
bullish move. Unfortunately the Bears are still skittish. I fear that a lotof
yesterday was the result of skittish Bears quickly covering short positionsas
opposed to any full scale purchasing of stocks by the "Big Money". The large
swings we see in the indexes and in stocks themselves represent the high
levels of fear that still grip this market. I think it is far too early to be
looking for any long term investments. If perhaps we have found a bottom, we may
find ourselves in a large trading range for some time to come. This will be
challenging for many of us who have enjoyed trends (both up and down) for
several years now. "Take the money and run" may be the best approach until the
market makes up its mind. Dusting off, and brushing up on the use of our non
trending indicators may be the best approach for now. Lucky for us we have a
treasure trove of such indicators to choose from, an ever improving software
package to practice them on and an impressive mind bank of creative people to
help us fine tune their best use.
<SPAN
class=939284213-11102002>
Or
perhaps we are on day 2 of a huge new bull where everyone can once again become
an "Expert" and throwing darts at the Wall Street Journal can produce impressive
year end gains......... :))
Jayson
<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS
[mailto:TSOKAKIS@xxxx]Sent: Friday, October 11, 2002 3:10
AMTo: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: [amibroker] Re:
ArticlesMany people were named guru during the bullish
years.They were not educated in fundamental or technical analysis.They
were just pushing prices higher and higher.MACD was a fine solution for
charts, as long as it was not crossing its signal for months !!StochD
was not important, it was from 60 to 90 for exrended periods.Crazy P/Eswere
promissing huge profits not only for us but for the 3 next generations
!!Crazy profits in new tech for example, when I payed $1800 back in 1989
for my brand new 386 and less than the half for my PIII/800 in 2000
!!After the end of the bubble, the same people walked the dangerous [and
wrong] path : they continued serving the bullish dream.In any local trough,
the very next day after the reaction, they were giving bold promises for a
new high.The reason is simple : they did not know something else to
do.But the market was falling again and again.Nearly 3 years later some
people still remain on this bullish dream, some gurus still remain on the
same side, but who cares !!They did not see the bearish reality, which is
much more real than the bullish bubble.We should face the recent example
: What happened yesterday ? YHOO announced a third-quarter profit of 5 cents
a share late Wednesday, a penny above estimates, and raised its revenue
forecast for 2002. Aetna Inc. New (NYSE:AET) had some optimistic forecasts,
GE will announce a profit report before the Friday´s open.Are these [and
some other minor] events the reason for an enthusiastic gap up ?I would
consider more important to read an announcement for divident payment for
some "great" companies.[You may see also <A
href="">http://money.cnn.com/2002/10/10/pf/investing/q_dividends/index.htm]This
would be a serious reason to buy and hold some "promissing" stocks of the
"new" tech.Else I am obliged to invent new techniques to take a +10% from
CSCO, applying a "take the money and run" logic.I will be a fool ifI
forget that the last 2 months CSCO price did not pay any respect to ANY
technical support.Does this behavior reflects the company perspectives [to
apply the No 1 Stockmarket axiom]?I am not the authorised person to
answer. Did we see any serious reply to this fundamental question by any
authorised person ?[If positive, please let me know...]. Was there any
serious fundamental reason to drop from $15 [Aug22] to $8.5 [Oct10] in 32
trading days ???Probably not.We have to understand that we are alone
in this wild market, we do not need any uneducated guru to give any
advise.The only solution, in my opinion, is our continuous fundamental and
technical education.And especially for this technical part, Amibroker
forum is one of the best.Enough for now, it is 10:00 and ^Gdax
opens.Thank you for the opportunity.Dimitris Tsokakis
--- In amibroker@xxxx,
"eseward_2000" <eseward_2000@xxxx> wrote:> Thanks, Dimitris; that
was worth reading.> > Bill> > > --- In
amibroker@xxxx, "DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS" <TSOKAKIS@xxxx> wrote:> > <A
href="">http://money.cnn.com/2002/10/09/markets/strategists/index.htm>
> Interesting and educative.> > DTPost
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