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Many people were named guru during the bullish years.
They were not educated in fundamental or technical analysis.
They were just pushing prices higher and higher.
MACD was a fine solution for charts, as long as it was not crossing
its signal for months !!
StochD was not important, it was from 60 to 90 for exrended periods.
Crazy P/Es were promissing huge profits not only for us but for the 3
next generations !!
Crazy profits in new tech for example, when I payed $1800 back in
1989 for my brand new 386 and less than the half for my PIII/800 in
2000 !!
After the end of the bubble, the same people walked the dangerous
[and wrong] path : they continued serving the bullish dream.
In any local trough, the very next day after the reaction, they were
giving bold promises for a new high.
The reason is simple : they did not know something else to do.
But the market was falling again and again.
Nearly 3 years later some people still remain on this bullish dream,
some gurus still remain on the same side, but who cares !!
They did not see the bearish reality, which is much more real than
the bullish bubble.
We should face the recent example : What happened yesterday ?
YHOO announced a third-quarter profit of 5 cents a share late
Wednesday,
a penny above estimates, and raised its revenue forecast for 2002.
Aetna Inc. New (NYSE:AET) had some optimistic forecasts, GE will
announce a profit report before the Friday´s open.
Are these [and some other minor] events the reason for an
enthusiastic gap up ?
I would consider more important to read an announcement for divident
payment for some "great" companies.
[You may see also
http://money.cnn.com/2002/10/10/pf/investing/q_dividends/index.htm]
This would be a serious reason to buy and hold some "promissing"
stocks of the "new" tech.
Else I am obliged to invent new techniques to take a +10% from CSCO,
applying a "take the money and run" logic.
I will be a fool if I forget that the last 2 months CSCO price did
not pay any respect to ANY technical support.
Does this behavior reflects the company perspectives [to apply the No
1 Stockmarket axiom]?
I am not the authorised person to answer. Did we see any serious
reply to this fundamental question by any authorised person ?
[If positive, please let me know...]. Was there any serious
fundamental reason to drop from $15 [Aug22] to $8.5 [Oct10] in 32
trading days ???
Probably not.
We have to understand that we are alone in this wild market, we do
not need any uneducated guru to give any advise.
The only solution, in my opinion, is our continuous fundamental and
technical education.
And especially for this technical part, Amibroker forum is one of the
best.
Enough for now, it is 10:00 and ^Gdax opens.
Thank you for the opportunity.
Dimitris Tsokakis
--- In amibroker@xxxx, "eseward_2000" <eseward_2000@xxxx> wrote:
> Thanks, Dimitris; that was worth reading.
>
> Bill
>
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxx, "DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS" <TSOKAKIS@xxxx> wrote:
> > http://money.cnn.com/2002/10/09/markets/strategists/index.htm
> > Interesting and educative.
> > DT
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