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FWIW, Jayson, I totally agree with your read of the markets.
Best.
Bill
--- In amibroker@xxxx, "Jayson" <jcasavant@xxxx> wrote:
> DT,
> A good read! IMO the events of yesterday and the (apparent) follow
through
> of today are not yet compelling for a Long side bias. Remember
Monday just a
> short while ago?? The market is tired of selling and looks to ANY
minor
> event to try a bullish move. Unfortunately the Bears are still
skittish. I
> fear that a lot of yesterday was the result of skittish Bears
quickly
> covering short positions as opposed to any full scale purchasing of
stocks
> by the "Big Money". The large swings we see in the indexes and in
stocks
> themselves represent the high levels of fear that still grip this
market. I
> think it is far too early to be looking for any long term
investments. If
> perhaps we have found a bottom, we may find ourselves in a large
trading
> range for some time to come. This will be challenging for many of
us who
> have enjoyed trends (both up and down) for several years now. "Take
the
> money and run" may be the best approach until the market makes up
its mind.
> Dusting off, and brushing up on the use of our non trending
indicators may
> be the best approach for now. Lucky for us we have a treasure trove
of such
> indicators to choose from, an ever improving software package to
practice
> them on and an impressive mind bank of creative people to help us
fine tune
> their best use.
>
> Or perhaps we are on day 2 of a huge new bull where everyone can
once again
> become an "Expert" and throwing darts at the Wall Street Journal
can produce
> impressive year end gains......... :))
>
> Jayson
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS [mailto:TSOKAKIS@x...]
> Sent: Friday, October 11, 2002 3:10 AM
> To: amibroker@xxxx
> Subject: [amibroker] Re: Articles
>
>
> Many people were named guru during the bullish years.
> They were not educated in fundamental or technical analysis.
> They were just pushing prices higher and higher.
> MACD was a fine solution for charts, as long as it was not crossing
> its signal for months !!
> StochD was not important, it was from 60 to 90 for exrended periods.
> Crazy P/Es were promissing huge profits not only for us but for the
3
> next generations !!
> Crazy profits in new tech for example, when I payed $1800 back in
> 1989 for my brand new 386 and less than the half for my PIII/800 in
> 2000 !!
> After the end of the bubble, the same people walked the dangerous
> [and wrong] path : they continued serving the bullish dream.
> In any local trough, the very next day after the reaction, they were
> giving bold promises for a new high.
> The reason is simple : they did not know something else to do.
> But the market was falling again and again.
> Nearly 3 years later some people still remain on this bullish dream,
> some gurus still remain on the same side, but who cares !!
> They did not see the bearish reality, which is much more real than
> the bullish bubble.
> We should face the recent example : What happened yesterday ?
> YHOO announced a third-quarter profit of 5 cents a share late
> Wednesday,
> a penny above estimates, and raised its revenue forecast for 2002.
> Aetna Inc. New (NYSE:AET) had some optimistic forecasts, GE will
> announce a profit report before the Friday´s open.
> Are these [and some other minor] events the reason for an
> enthusiastic gap up ?
> I would consider more important to read an announcement for divident
> payment for some "great" companies.
> [You may see also
> http://money.cnn.com/2002/10/10/pf/investing/q_dividends/index.htm]
> This would be a serious reason to buy and hold some "promissing"
> stocks of the "new" tech.
> Else I am obliged to invent new techniques to take a +10% from CSCO,
> applying a "take the money and run" logic.
> I will be a fool if I forget that the last 2 months CSCO price did
> not pay any respect to ANY technical support.
> Does this behavior reflects the company perspectives [to apply the
No
> 1 Stockmarket axiom]?
> I am not the authorised person to answer. Did we see any serious
> reply to this fundamental question by any authorised person ?
> [If positive, please let me know...]. Was there any serious
> fundamental reason to drop from $15 [Aug22] to $8.5 [Oct10] in 32
> trading days ???
> Probably not.
> We have to understand that we are alone in this wild market, we do
> not need any uneducated guru to give any advise.
> The only solution, in my opinion, is our continuous fundamental and
> technical education.
> And especially for this technical part, Amibroker forum is one of
the
> best.
> Enough for now, it is 10:00 and ^Gdax opens.
> Thank you for the opportunity.
> Dimitris Tsokakis
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxx, "eseward_2000" <eseward_2000@xxxx> wrote:
> > Thanks, Dimitris; that was worth reading.
> >
> > Bill
> >
> >
> > --- In amibroker@xxxx, "DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS" <TSOKAKIS@xxxx> wrote:
> > > http://money.cnn.com/2002/10/09/markets/strategists/index.htm
> > > Interesting and educative.
> > > DT
>
>
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