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Dimitris,
>>When i give EXACTLY individual analysis,
you ask "why use it ONLY on the QQQ? ". It is strange, isnt
it?>>
In your very first post on this subject, it appeared, at least to me, you
were suggesting it for the QQQ. You made no mention of it being used for
anything else. So, naturally, I had the impression you had developed this system
for QQQ only.
>>[have you seen anything more simplethan
this ?]>>
Yes, the time-proven Turtle breakout system. They go long when the highest
high of the last 55 days is exceeded (breakout) or go short when the lowestlow
of the last 55 days is exceeded. They exit the long position when the lowest low
of the last 20 days is exceeded or the short position when the highest highfor
the last 20 days is exceeded. That's it. No indicators, no moving averages,no
stochastics, no oscillators, only the high and low. I don't know of any simpler
system than that (although, there are other nuances, like not taking the signal
if the last theoretical trade was a winner). The thing about that system is
that it makes logical sense. It's easy to understand and picture in the
mind. The idea is that if a security (stock or commodity) breaks out of a
trading range, there is likely to be a continuing momentum that will carry it
into a long term trend. There are lots of false signals, but when it is not
false, the profits are really big. Lots of people who follow the Turtle system
have made lots of money with it over the years.
When I read your code with no explanatory notes, I was puzzled as to the
meaning of the lines, and frankly I still am. The coefficiet 0.001 is likely
good only for the QQQ. True? I suppose it has to be different if a $200 stock is
being used, right? What's the fundamental basis of the 0.001? The H+L? The other
parameter coefficients? If the H/L spread shrinks at the peak in price, then
adding the high to the low value and multiplying it by a bigger number
compensates for when the H/L spread increases at the trough, where you multiply
the sum of the H and L by a lower number. You buy when the range is greaterthan
the product of H+L*0.001*43. It's all completely and totally empirical. Again,
as I said for the 0.001 coefficient, I suspect each stock would have to have its
own d1 and d2 parameter values, right? If that's true, it would be too
complicated, at least for my feeble mind, to keep track of all those different
parameter values.
>>Do you understand the same questionfor
the indicators you use ? Do you "see" the meaning of StochD()<30 for
example?>>
This may come as a surprise to you, Dimitris, but I try to avoid use of
indicators as much as possible, and most especially if I don't understand the
indicator. I like ADX as a trigger for the beginning of a trend. I can go into a
long explanation as to why, but that would be counterproductive on this board. I
use simple trailing stops. I don't use Stochastics, RSI, DEMA, TEMA, etc.,
etc. All I was saying was when you suggest and post a trading system on the
board, it would be nice to have a short explanatory dialogue for its use orin
support of its basis. That's all. You said Stoch()<30 is much more
complicated than a simple H/L relation. You are right. But, I didn't
understand the particular H/L relation you were proposing. Thanks for your
contribution.
AV
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
dtsokakis
To: <A title=amibroker@xxxxxxxxxx
href="">amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Sunday, June 23, 2002 4:06 PM
Subject: [amibroker] Re: QQQ Individual
Analysis
Well,I try to respond as fast as possible, as you
see.Different questions from different points of view.It is not only
QQQ, we have had the same discussion with Don today for MSFT.QQQ was
an example. Just an example.This excellent forum is strange.When I
give Trade the Market systems, many people ask for individual analysis.
When i give EXACTLY individual analysis, you ask "why use it ONLY on the
QQQ? ".It is strange, isnt it?Many people ask for a "copy/paste"
formula without explanations.When I give a SIMPLE, PRE-INDICATOR formula
with H and L only,[have you seen anything more simple than this ?], nobody
is satisfied, because they want to learn something "behind" the
formula.Please, do not make simple things to look as complicated.When
the stock is near the peak the H/L spred shrinks, when it is near the
trough the spread widens and thats all.It is just an observation and it
may be translated to some trading rules. Is it more complicated than RSI
mechanism ?I think no.I would like to read what you do not understand,
but, before posting your [interesting] question just think : Do you
understand the same question for the indicators you use ?Do you "see"
the meaning of StochD()<30 for example ?I think it is much more
complicated than a simple H/L relation ?I would like to have your
opinion.DT--- In amibroker@xxxx, "Avcinci" <avcinci@xxxx>
wrote:> DT,> > Several people have asked you to explain
the rationale behind your latest "system", but you have not responded. I
think it would be very helpful that, whenever someone submits a trading
idea to the group, he/she at least includes a short paragraph with some
brief explanation or support for the rationale behind the system or idea.
I look at the code and it baffles me what it is trying to say. You buy
when the today's range exceeds 0.1% of a fudge factor multiplying the
sum of the high and low, and you sell when today's range is less than
this product. What the heck does that mean? And, why use it ONLY on
the QQQ? Very baffling. > > Al V.> -----
Original Message ----- > From: Nurudin Kaba
> To: amibroker@xxxx > Sent: Sunday,
June 23, 2002 6:18 PM> Subject: RE: [amibroker] Re: QQQ
Individual Analysis> > > 14,43 happen tobe
the optimum numbers...though it does form an island using Herman's 3D
graphing via excel...> > Interesting...but still
don't understand the rational behind the system. >
> Thanks> -----Original
Message-----> From: dtsokakis
[mailto:TSOKAKIS@xxxx]> Sent: Sunday, June23,
2002 12:10 PM> To:
amibroker@xxxx> Subject: [amibroker] Re: QQQ
Individual Analysis> > > As you
see in settings, the final result is for Long & short
trades.> If you select Long only, or Short
only, you get the respective results>
///QQQ [14,43]=+177% [LONG] > ///QQQ
[14,43]=+359% [SHORT] AND > ///QQQ
[14,43]=+1175% [LONG & SHORT] > for
parameters values 14, 43>
DT> --- In amibroker@xxxx, "Nurudin Kaba"
<n.kaba@xxxx> wrote:> > DT, what is
the premise behind HL.afl.> >
> > Thanks>
> -----Original Message----->
> From: dtsokakis
[mailto:TSOKAKIS@xxxx]> > Sent:
Sunday, June 23, 2002 11:16 AM>
> To: amibroker@xxxx>
> Subject: [amibroker] Re: QQQ Individual
Analysis> > >
> > >
Peter,> > My data begin on
3/1/2000.> > See analytic
#> > <A
href="">http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/message/20095>
> DT> > --- In
amibroker@xxxx, "bluesinvestor" <investor@xxxx>
wrote:> > >
Dimitris,> > >
> > > Again great performance
and yet not the same trades or > results ...
> > does
your> > > history go back
further than Jan 2000?> > >
> > >
Peter> > >
-----Original Message-----> >
> From: Dimitris Tsokakis
[mailto:TSOKAKIS@xxxx]> >
> Sent: Sunday, June 23, 2002 11:59
AM> > > To:
amibroker@xxxx> >
> Subject: [amibroker] QQQ Individual
Analysis> > >
> > >
> > > If youare
fed up from my Composite Analysis, let us make a
> break >
> with an> > >
individual one.> >
> Simple logic, simple profits, pre-indicator era.[High,
Low > and >
> thats all> >
> !!]> > >
Dimitris Tsokakis> > >
> > >
> >
> Yahoo! Groups
Sponsor> >
>
ADVERTISEMENT> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Your use of
Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of
> >
Service.> > >
> > > Your use of Yahoo!
Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of >
Service.> > > Your use of Yahoo!
Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms of Service. > >
> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the Yahoo! Terms
of Service.Your
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href="">Yahoo! Terms of Service.
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