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As per my knowledge the short term market is not
driven by fundamental but human’s behavior. Say I have
to buy a car and trying hard than one day my stock
appreciated handsomely & that evening I came to home
driving my new car only to know that my stock’s RSI or
STOCH… is just bottoming out.
Take a look in AFL Library for an indicator SWIM INDEX
coded by me.
There is no overbought/oversold limit, no time limit
but only to know whether I have sold my stock as per
my experience or my emotion. You can see the FEAR of
missing profit in my above mentioned trade. You just
have to look for a cross of relatively significant
peak or
Bottom and get ready for trend reversal in next two
days or at least pause in trend.
If you’re day trader, please take a look attached Jpg.
KAILASH K PAREEK ( JOHNNY )
--- server not recognized <winchp@xxxx>
wrote:
> I don't understand why you want to predict?
> Anticipate perhaps ? MACD
> cross, or ADX or any other number of indicators can
> help you anticipate.
>
> I wish you luck. From my limited experience it
> seems the market is a "now"
> thing not a "what happened last week clearly showed
> that next week, it'll
> boom" thing.
>
> The reason for this is very simple. Its sentiment
> that drives stocks and
> futures. Things like life-style issues (I'd rather
> buy a case of wine than
> Cisco), or shit I'm scared, greedy, confident, my
> wife walked out yesterday,
> the kids are in jail, etc. Interest in stocks by
> little guys are affected
> by these things, as well as the big guys who worry
> as individual traders -
> hell Mike at ... lost his job, I'm not making my
> targets, performance review
> next week, or as intitutions, "why are xxx doing so
> well, why did we loss
> cash on, why is our client base falling away,
> should we develop more
> products and pull back in shares etc. I cameto the
> conclusion a long time
> ago, that an economist couldn't pick his nose let
> alone market trades. In
> the long term maybe, but like LTCM its the dips that
> kill you - and there is
> NEVER a guarantee that it'll pull out of the dip!
>
> All this is going on in different timeframes. So
> just use say three
> different timeframes and see how everything is
> meshing together. For
> instance, in a market I follow about a month ago,
> the monthly weekly and
> daily indicators all converged to a single value.
> Something had to happen,
> it did and doubled the money in a day, the very next
> day.
>
> P
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: <b519b@xxxx>
> To: <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Tuesday, September 25, 2001 8:42 AM
> Subject: [amibroker] A Puzzell: Otimize winning %
>
>
> > Is there a way to get the optimizer to optimize
> for the percentage of
> > winners rather than the profit percentage? The
> Report feature gives
> > such a percentage but the Report feature is only
> available after
> > backtesting, not after optimization.
> >
> > I am working on a market timing indicator for
> identifing/predicting
> > changes in the market trend and at this stage of
> my work, I am more
> > interested in getting a high win percentage for
> the indicator. My
> > plan is to use the indicator to identify/predict
> changes in market
> > trend, and then to use a different set of
> selection criteria to pick
> > the stocks to buy or short.
> >
> > Right now I eyeball the results by having the
> optimziation results
> > sorted by number of winners, but this is
> inefficient since the total
> > number of calls varies considerably. Getting the
> results ranked by
> > winning% would be much more easier for me.
> >
> > b
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >
> >
>
>
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