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I don't understand why you want to predict? Anticipate perhaps ? MACD
cross, or ADX or any other number of indicators can help you anticipate.
I wish you luck. From my limited experience it seems the market is a "now"
thing not a "what happened last week clearly showed that next week, it'll
boom" thing.
The reason for this is very simple. Its sentiment that drives stocks and
futures. Things like life-style issues (I'd rather buy a case of wine than
Cisco), or shit I'm scared, greedy, confident, my wife walked out yesterday,
the kids are in jail, etc. Interest in stocks by little guys are affected
by these things, as well as the big guys who worry as individual traders -
hell Mike at ... lost his job, I'm not making my targets, performance review
next week, or as intitutions, "why are xxx doing so well, why did we loss
cash on, why is our client base falling away, should we develop more
products and pull back in shares etc. I cameto the conclusion a long time
ago, that an economist couldn't pick his nose let alone market trades. In
the long term maybe, but like LTCM its the dips that kill you - and there is
NEVER a guarantee that it'll pull out of the dip!
All this is going on in different timeframes. So just use say three
different timeframes and see how everything is meshing together. For
instance, in a market I follow about a month ago, the monthly weekly and
daily indicators all converged to a single value. Something had to happen,
it did and doubled the money in a day, the very next day.
P
----- Original Message -----
From: <b519b@xxxx>
To: <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, September 25, 2001 8:42 AM
Subject: [amibroker] A Puzzell: Otimize winning %
> Is there a way to get the optimizer to optimize for the percentage of
> winners rather than the profit percentage? The Report feature gives
> such a percentage but the Report feature is only available after
> backtesting, not after optimization.
>
> I am working on a market timing indicator for identifing/predicting
> changes in the market trend and at this stage of my work, I am more
> interested in getting a high win percentage for the indicator. My
> plan is to use the indicator to identify/predict changes in market
> trend, and then to use a different set of selection criteria to pick
> the stocks to buy or short.
>
> Right now I eyeball the results by having the optimziation results
> sorted by number of winners, but this is inefficient since the total
> number of calls varies considerably. Getting the results ranked by
> winning% would be much more easier for me.
>
> b
>
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>
> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
>
>
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