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Fibonacci (Optical) Illusions



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Dimitris Tsokakis
(an Amibroker user)

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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I do not run Metastock software.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>So I do not have the problem of center of cycles 
tapped </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>here and there.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I run Amibroker and with 3.68 I have a newtool, 
"Fibonacci arc".</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>The center is always at the same, user selected, 
point C.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>The beginning of the trendline is always at H, 
independent</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>of zoom factor or window shape.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>The release note, as usual well prepared and 
comprehensive,</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>notes that "arc radius and central point are 
relative to the controlling </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>trendline and because Fibonacci arcs must be 
circular regardless of </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>screen size/resolution and zoom factor theposition 
of the arcs may </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>move in date/price domain." And it is 100%exact 
and specific.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>So, let us see what we have here.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>It is supposed that something happens and so I will 
take some action</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>(buy, sell or whatever "analysts" suggest here and 
there) when stock</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>graph crosses the arc. For simplicity, letus 
consider outer arc in attached</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>gifs.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>According to F1.gif, I&nbsp;have to wait 22(!!) 
days for point A.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>F2.gif is "better". Only 5 days more and Iwill 
meet my good fortune at A.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>All of a sudden, at F3.gif, I see that this is THE 
DAY. And if I do not remember</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>by heart, I have to read my "analyst" guidelines 
again, because I have to take</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>the ACTION. You understand that if I will loose the 
day of the coincidence, I </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>must wait for the next opportunity.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>But at F4.gif I stay cool again. If point A was 
important, alas!, I lost it, because</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I was not using the PROPER zoom factor 
!!</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>My "cross" day is now 45(!!) days AFTER point 
A.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I read a lot of hints, that circular arc are 
"standard", that any other elliptical arc</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>is "dangerous" for trading decisions, because 
"analysts" etc.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Now I have to read again my books, to findthe 
paragraph that correlates</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Fibonacci Arcs and Zoom factor and Window size, as 
decision tool for</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Support, Resistance and whatever.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I am disappointed with this new "illusionary" tool. 
It is in direct disagreement</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>with the VERY SERIOUS LEVEL of the software I 
use.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV>&nbsp;</DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Dimitris Tsokakis</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>(an Amibroker user)</FONT></DIV></BODY></HTML>

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