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As I stated , This is a tool to evaluate the Probability of a future price
being achieved in (x) number of days , (x) number of
Standard Deviation, ( default is ; +1 , -1 , 68% or 2/3rds of all market
outcome happens here) and current Market Volatiity,
It all has to do with the Bell Curve.
AS FOR THIS:
.......This is not serious.
.......If anyone in this revolutionary mail-list attempted to present
.......such an indicator, with no value for the last 11 days, it is not
.......difficult to predict the reactions.
I respond:
As I stated , This is a tool to evaluate the Probability of a future price
being achieved in (x) number of days , (x) number of
Standard Deviation, ( default is ; +1 , -1 , 68% or 2/3rds of all market
outcome happens here) and current Market Volatility. The indicator name is:
Probability and Future Price Projection
Please see the attached image (Visual Reference), I believe I wrote: c1 =
ref(close,-5) , meaning I wanted to start my calculation 5 days ago, not 5
days in the future, (That would be ridiculous ), possible communication
error, or typing error,. I have produced the same calculations as the
attached image, but without the lines.
Is it possible to project a line from (ex. close, -5) , to the calculated top
and bottom targets, as in the image file. therefore, the targets would be
(ex. 20 days) from the close 5 days ago.
Another Note:
The parameters in the code can be changed. There are 4 parameters: ( close ,
days, standard deviation, volatility).
Volatility = historical or implied
Standard Deviation = Default ( +1,-1) , starts from 0 which is closing price
selected and up.
Days = 1 to ........
Close = todays close or close back (-5) , subtract this from days to get
future days ( ex. 20days - (-5) = 15 days ahead.
Again, I reiterate, I am uploading a comment to the indicatior and a brief
tutorial for the group, on how to use the imformation , I guess in my
excitement, that Amibroker could produce the calculations,( I knew it could),
I uploaded so
all could share and comment, in order to improve.
Thank you.
Anthony.
DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS wrote:
> And another one, copied exactly from the source:
>
> "To calculate the detrended price oscillator an x-period moving
> average is centered.
> This is done by shifting the moving average back [(x/2) + 1] period.
> This centered moving average is then subtracted from the close.
> Because it is set up as an oscillator, it will cross above and below
> zero.
> The last [(x/2) + 1] period will have no value.
> This is because the detrended price oscillator is shifted back [(x/2)
> + 1] period."
>
> Could any user accept this??
> "The last [(x/2) + 1] period will have no value"
> i.e. for a period of 20 days, you will not have indicator value for
> the last 11 days.
> Then, what do you have??
> A good report of what happened 11 days ago ??
> This is not serious.
> If anyone in this revolutionary mail-list attempted to present
> such an indicator, with no value for the last 11 days, it is not
> difficult to predict the reactions
> [In between, I prefer this software makers.
> At least, they are honest and inform the user that he "will have no
> value".
> And explain the reason.
> (They do not explain the purpose and the application of this
> indicator.
> But, we can not have everything in this life...)]
>
> Best Regards
> Dimitris Tsokakis
> --- In amibroker@xxxx, "Tomasz Janeczko" <amibroker@xxxx> wrote:
> > Hi,
> >
> > >Because, whithout data for tomorrow, the program gives for
> > >ref(close,1) the available today´s price.
> > >(In my opinion, it should indicate an {empty} value, because
> > >ref(close,+1) exists for all previous days except the last one)
> > >I do not know how it is designed, I know how it works.]
> >
> > Yes it gives today's price for the last bar as we don't know the
> future yet :-)
> > The reason why it doesn't return {empty} is that some of the other
> > functions may be confused if they see {empty} at the end of the
> array
> > (normally {empty} values appear only at the beginning and all AFL
> functions
> > are aware of this fact)
> >
> > Also: I agree with Dimitris that writing trading systems using Ref
> with positive
> > offsets (looking into the future) would give results that could not
> be
> > reproduced in real life. (unless you have time-machine :-)))
> >
> >
> > Best regards,
> > Tomasz Janeczko
> > amibroker.com
>
>
>
>
> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
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Dimitri:
<p>As I stated , This is a tool to evaluate the Probability of a future
price being achieved in (x) number of days , (x) number of
<br>Standard Deviation, ( <b>default</b> is ; +1 , -1 , 68% or 2/3rds of
all market outcome happens here) and current Market Volatiity,
<br>It all has to do with the<b><i> Bell Curve</i></b>.
<p><b><i><u>AS FOR THIS:</u></i></b><b><i><u></u></i></b>
<p>.......This is not serious.
<br>.......If anyone in this revolutionary mail-list attempted to present
<br>.......such an indicator, with no value for the last 11 days, it is
not
<br>.......difficult to predict the reactions.<i></i>
<p><b><i><u>I respond:</u></i></b>
<br>As I stated , This is a tool to evaluate the <b><i>Probability</i></b>
of a <b><i>future price</i></b> being achieved in (<b>x</b>) number of
days , (<b>x</b>) number of
<br>Standard Deviation, ( default is ; +1 , -1 , 68% or 2/3rds of all market
outcome happens here) and <b><i>current</i></b> Market Volatility. The
indicator name is: <b><i>Probability and Future Price Projection</i></b>
<p><b><i><u>Please see the attached image (Visual Reference)</u></i></b>,
I believe I wrote: <b>c1 = ref(close,-5) ,</b> meaning I wanted to start
my calculation 5 days ago, not 5 days in the future, (That would be ridiculous
), possible communication error, or typing error,. I have produced the
same calculations as the attached image, but without the lines.
<p>Is it possible to project a line from (ex. <b>close, -5</b>) , to the
calculated top and bottom targets, as in the image file. therefore, the
targets would be (ex. <b>20 days</b>) from the close 5 days ago.
<p><b><i><u>Another Note:</u></i></b>
<br>The parameters in the code can be changed. There are 4 parameters:
( <u>close</u> , <u>days</u>, <u>standard deviation</u>, <u>volatility</u>).
<br>Volatility = historical or implied
<br>Standard Deviation = Default ( +1,-1) , starts from 0 which is closing
price selected and up.
<br>Days = 1 to ........
<br>Close = todays close or close back (-5) , subtract this from days to
get future days ( ex. 20days - (-5) = 15 days ahead.
<br>
<p>Again, I <b><i>reiterate</i></b>, I am uploading a comment to the indicatior
and a brief tutorial for the group, on how to use the imformation , I guess
in my excitement, that Amibroker could produce the calculations,( I knew
it could), I uploaded so
<br>all could share and comment, in order to improve.
<p>Thank you.
<br>Anthony.
<br>
<p>DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS wrote:
<blockquote TYPE=CITE>And another one, copied exactly from the source:
<p>"To calculate the detrended price oscillator an x-period moving
<br>average is centered.
<br>This is done by shifting the moving average back [(x/2) + 1] period.
<br>This centered moving average is then subtracted from the close.
<br>Because it is set up as an oscillator, it will cross above and below
<br>zero.
<br>The last [(x/2) + 1] period will have no value.
<br>This is because the detrended price oscillator is shifted back [(x/2)
<br>+ 1] period."
<p>Could any user accept this??
<br>"The last [(x/2) + 1] period will have no value"
<br>i.e. for a period of 20 days, you will not have indicator value for
<br>the last 11 days.
<br>Then, what do you have??
<br>A good report of what happened 11 days ago ??
<br>This is not serious.
<br>If anyone in this revolutionary mail-list attempted to present
<br>such an indicator, with no value for the last 11 days, it is not
<br>difficult to predict the reactions
<br>[In between, I prefer this software makers.
<br>At least, they are honest and inform the user that he "will have no
<br>value".
<br>And explain the reason.
<br>(They do not explain the purpose and the application of this
<br>indicator.
<br>But, we can not have everything in this life...)]
<p>Best Regards
<br>Dimitris Tsokakis
<br>--- In amibroker@xxxx, "Tomasz Janeczko" <amibroker@xxxx> wrote:
<br>> Hi,
<br>>
<br>> >Because, whithout data for tomorrow, the program gives for
<br>> >ref(close,1) the available today´s price.
<br>> >(In my opinion, it should indicate an {empty} value, because
<br>> >ref(close,+1) exists for all previous days except the last one)
<br>> >I do not know how it is designed, I know how it works.]
<br>>
<br>> Yes it gives today's price for the last bar as we don't know the
<br>future yet :-)
<br>> The reason why it doesn't return {empty} is that some of the other
<br>> functions may be confused if they see {empty} at the end of the
<br>array
<br>> (normally {empty} values appear only at the beginning and all AFL
<br>functions
<br>> are aware of this fact)
<br>>
<br>> Also: I agree with Dimitris that writing trading systems using Ref
<br>with positive
<br>> offsets (looking into the future) would give results that could not
<br>be
<br>> reproduced in real life. (unless you have time-machine :-)))
<br>>
<br>>
<br>> Best regards,
<br>> Tomasz Janeczko
<br>> amibroker.com
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