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Hello Jim!
I would cycle analysis is more of an art than a science; I think
even those who follow them would often wonder if they are there - at
least at times. However, I might agree with you on the 'static'
comment, as the cycles that I track always have an average variance
of plus or minus 20% in either direction.
A similar notion could be applied to Elliott-wave; it is more of an
art than a science - but there are some who are very adept with it.
As far as statistical validity, I would doubt you would find any hard
evidence of that in any trading method (other than something slightly
above-average). if there were something that worked 100% of the time,
then please let us all know as we would like to use it :-)
as for methodology, I am going to reference Hurst's 'Profit Magic',
along with Raymond Merriman's book 'Cycles and Patterns in the market'.
these two are a good starting point for those interested in cycles. take
what you find useful, discard the rest - and then add that to what you
come up with yourself. it is certainly an evolutionary process.
where is Clyde Lee when you need him? :-)
thanks for the message
Jim
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