RE: [RT] 1929-1987 Spiral Calendar Analog update

["Jim Ross" <jrosscpa@xxxxxxx>]

Nassim Taleb posed exactly that question in his book The Black Swan.  The question was put to the MIT quant and Guido the street wise bookie as such:

 

This is a FAIR coin and FAIR coin toss and it has resulted in four heads in a row.

 

The quant said “Of course not, the fifth trial is an entirely independent event and the probability is 50/50.”

 

Guido said.  “It’ll be a heads.  Yas jest can’t flip four heads in a row.  The game’s rigged.  It’ll be a heads.”

 

The question is whether there’s a hidden order in time and space.  Benoit Mandelbrot, the greatest mathematician of our lifetime IMO and the discoverer of the Mandelbrot set, would say there is a hidden order.  But it isn’t a Gausian “bellcurve” order; its not a gaming coin toss population of events .  It is not linear and likely we will never discover it.  Our only glimpse of it will be through fractal geometry.

 

Jim

 

From: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf Of GerryB
Sent: Sunday, October 25, 2009 7:08 PM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: [RT] 1929-1987 Spiral Calendar Analog update

 

 

Now, consider that the model HAS SUCCESSFULLY predicted the first two
out of the four dates?  Does that make the improbable less improbable? 
I know it does, but by how much.  About that I don’t have a clue.  But,
again, it is interesting.

SAY YOU FLIP A COIN 4 TIMES IN A ROW AND IT COMES UP
HEADS...........DOES THAT INCRECREASE THE PROBABILITY THAT ON THE NEXT
FLIP IT WILL NOT BE HEADS?.................OR DOES IT REMAIN THE SAME:
50/50 AS IN THE FIRST 4 CASES?????

GERRYB

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