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Of course I am quite familiar with Elliott Wave
methodology but find it too unreliable as a basis for trading. It seems no two
Elliotticians can ever agree on wave count.
Thank you for the Wernicki web site reference
however I must take exception to his statement of being the first and only
fractal forecasting firm in the world since I have been doing it since 1998. I
would love to read about his approach but find no descriptive material on the
web site. Are you aware of any? Perhaps I will email him.
My work and basic approach ( "A New Paradigm...")
can be reviewed at my web site PivotTrader.com
My forecasting is based on my "Near ImpulseTheory"
with non linear projections of impulse into the future. I have focused my
efforts on creating highly reliable trading tools based on my methodology with
an objective of identifying turning points within one bar of the
pivot..
Thanks again for the reference - I look forward to
learning more.
Jim White
Pivot Research & Trading
Co.
PivotTrader.com
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Thursday, March 26, 2009 4:28
PM
Subject: RE: [RT] Fractal and Armstrong's
1.075 year cycle and April 16, 2009 PEI date
Too much
typing too little proofing. See cap corrections.
Again,
Elliott Waves are a method of identifying self similar fractals. I
cannot imagine that you have not studied Elliott Waves if you?ve developed a
fractal system. You could spend weeks on Elliott Wave methodology and
it?s been around with R.N. Elliott first identified its ?rules? and Robert
Prechter HAS popularized its use in the ?70s via
?Elliott Wave Principles.?
The one
fractal practitioner who ?headlines? his work as more fractal geometry than EW
and with whom I have direct familiarity is Hank Wernicki. He frequents
Yelnick?s site and has a site at http://www.elliottfractals.com/.
During the rapid decline period of August 2008 to November 2008, he had some
fractal calls relying more upon his methodology than EW that SUCCEEDED within minutes of his
prediction. They
were spooky correct. Huge moves. More recently, his
hand has gone cold, having called for a continuation of the downtrend about 2
weeks ago?.
Market
analogs are OFTEN
CONSIDERED, themselves,
FRACTALS. Most often they?re visual and
not discovered by a system for that purpose, but many analysts follow
analogs. You can?t help but read the comparison charts to prior bears,
etc. Many analysts reduce their analysis to
correlation statistics and keep weekly running tabs on correlation (Larry
Tomlinson?s service is an
example).
Again,
my primary concentration (as a hobbyist and amateur)
is Elliott Waves which is
a system of recognizing fractal generation and execution. What might
your system look like conceptually?
Jim
From: realtraders@yahoogroups.com
[mailto:realtraders@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Jim
White
Sent: Thursday, March 26, 2009 6:07 PM
To:
realtraders@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [RT] Fractal and
Armstrong's 1.075 year cycle and April 16, 2009 PEI
date
I am familiar with
Mandelbrot's work on unifractals and multifractals and other than my own non
linear model and use of fractals, I was not aware of anyone else making a
practical application to trading. If you could provide more detailed
references as to where this approach originated and is described, I would
appreciate it.
----- Original Message
-----
Sent: Thursday, March 26, 2009 2:28
PM
Subject: RE: [RT] Fractal and Armstrong's 1.075 year cycle
and April 16, 2009 PEI date
A self
organizing geometric form. Recognizing the waves of the parent fractal
and locating the initial waves of a child fractal allows you to enter a
trade that anticipates the last waves of the child fractal with higher
probability. Benoit Mandelbrot (Nobel mathematician), among
others, claims chaos theory and non linear systems can only be anticipated
via fractal geometry. Elliott Wave methodology is a method of
anticipating fractal generation.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fractal
http://www.amazon.com/Mis-behavior-Markets-Benoit-Mandelbrot/dp/0465043550
http://www.economymodels.com/factalmarkets.asp
http://www.tradingfives.com/articles/elliott-wave-fractals.html
There are
hundreds of references. There are websites dedicated to fractal
recognition and trading.
From: realtraders@yahoogroups.com
[mailto:realtraders@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Jim
White
Sent: Thursday, March 26, 2009 4:39 PM
To:
realtraders@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [RT] Fractal
and Armstrong's 1.075 year cycle and April 16, 2009 PEI
date
Could you please provide
the definition of the "fractal" relative to market action and a reference
for its use in market analysis.
----- Original Message
-----
Sent: Thursday, March 26, 2009 10:51
AM
Subject:
[RT] Fractal and Armstrong's 1.075 year cycle and April 16, 2009 PEI
date
I?ve been following a fractal the move from October 11,
2007 ?wave 1? to March 10, 2008 being the parent of the fractal (parent)
of the wave from June 2008 to present (child) in QQQQs. If you look
at the last small portion of 2008 parent fractal, you see a clear triangle
and then a quick wave 5 to end that wave on March 17, 2008. Here?s
the last days of the 2008 parent fractal:
Here?s the thought. If you count backwards
exactly one Armstrong interval of 1.075 years (per ?It?s Just Time? page
25) from today, March 26, 2009, you get February 27, 2008. That is
point 4 e on the above chart. That implies Robert?s chart that calls
for the following end of the child fractal is occurring today, March 26,
2009..
Now, do one more little test. I?m suggesting the
mythical wave 5 ends on April 16, 2009 which is Armstrong?s PEI
date. Now, subtract 1.075 years from April 16, 2009 and you get
March 19, 2008. Allowing 1 day for rounding (1.075 years is 392.375
days), then you?re within 1 days of the end of the parent fractal?s wave
or point 5 of 5 on the first chart.
One last thing. March 26, 2009 is a McHugh Phi
change in trend date. Except for his March 13, 2009 Phi date, they
have been very accurate over the course of this bear.
Just some thoughts in case it, as improbable as it is,
does
occur.
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