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RE: [RT] Fractal and Armstrong's 1.075 year cycle and April 16, 2009 PEI date
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From:
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf
Of Jim Ross
Sent: Thursday, March 26, 2009 6:51 PM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: RE: [RT] Fractal and Armstrong's 1.075 year cycle and April 16,
2009 PEI date
Again, Elliott Waves are a method of
identifying self similar fractals. I cannot imagine that you have not
studied Elliott Waves if you’ve developed a fractal system. You
could spend weeks on Elliott Wave methodology and it’s been around with
R.N. Elliott first identified its ‘rules’ and Robert Prechter HAS popularized its use in the ‘70s via “Elliott Wave
Principles.”
The one fractal practitioner who
‘headlines’ his work as more fractal geometry than EW and with whom
I have direct familiarity is Hank Wernicki. He frequents Yelnick’s
site and has a site at http://www.elliottfractals.com/.
During the rapid decline period of August 2008 to November 2008, he had some
fractal calls relying more upon his methodology than EW that SUCCEEDED within minutes of his prediction. They were spooky correct. Huge moves. More recently, his
hand has gone cold, having called for a continuation of the downtrend about 2
weeks ago….
Market analogs are OFTEN CONSIDERED, themselves, FRACTALS. Most often they’re visual and not
discovered by a system for that purpose, but many analysts follow
analogs. You can’t help but read the comparison charts to prior
bears, etc. Many analysts reduce their analysis to
correlation statistics and keep weekly running tabs on correlation (Larry
Tomlinson’s service
is an example).
Again, my primary concentration (as a hobbyist and amateur) is Elliott Waves which is a system of
recognizing fractal generation and execution. What might your system look
like conceptually?
Jim
From:
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf
Of Jim White
Sent: Thursday, March 26, 2009 6:07 PM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: [RT] Fractal and Armstrong's 1.075 year cycle and April 16,
2009 PEI date
I am familiar with Mandelbrot's work on unifractals
and multifractals and other than my own non linear model and use of fractals, I
was not aware of anyone else making a practical application to trading. If you
could provide more detailed references as to where this approach originated and
is described, I would appreciate it.
----- Original Message -----
Sent:
Thursday, March 26, 2009 2:28 PM
Subject: RE:
[RT] Fractal and Armstrong's 1.075 year cycle and April 16, 2009 PEI date
A self organizing geometric form.
Recognizing the waves of the parent fractal and locating the initial waves of a
child fractal allows you to enter a trade that anticipates the last waves of
the child fractal with higher probability. Benoit Mandelbrot (Nobel
mathematician), among others, claims chaos theory and non linear systems can
only be anticipated via fractal geometry. Elliott Wave methodology is a
method of anticipating fractal generation.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fractal
http://www.amazon.com/Mis-behavior-Markets-Benoit-Mandelbrot/dp/0465043550
http://www.economymodels.com/factalmarkets.asp
http://www.tradingfives.com/articles/elliott-wave-fractals.html
There are hundreds of references.
There are websites dedicated to fractal recognition and trading.
From:
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf
Of Jim White
Sent: Thursday, March 26, 2009 4:39 PM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: [RT] Fractal and Armstrong's 1.075 year cycle and April 16,
2009 PEI date
Could you please provide the definition of the
"fractal" relative to market action and a reference for its use in
market analysis.
----- Original Message -----
Sent:
Thursday, March 26, 2009 10:51 AM
Subject:
[RT] Fractal and Armstrong's 1.075 year cycle and April 16, 2009 PEI date
I’ve
been following a fractal the move from October 11, 2007 “wave 1” to
March 10, 2008 being the parent of the fractal (parent) of the wave from June
2008 to present (child) in QQQQs. If you look at the last small portion
of 2008 parent fractal, you see a clear triangle and then a quick wave 5 to end
that wave on March 17, 2008. Here’s the last days of the 2008
parent fractal:
Here’s
the thought. If you count backwards exactly one Armstrong interval of
1.075 years (per “It’s Just Time” page 25) from today, March
26, 2009, you get February 27, 2008. That is point 4 e on the above
chart. That implies Robert’s chart that calls for the following end
of the child fractal is occurring today, March 26, 2009..
Now,
do one more little test. I’m suggesting the mythical wave 5 ends on
April 16, 2009 which is Armstrong’s PEI date. Now, subtract 1.075 years
from April 16, 2009 and you get March 19, 2008. Allowing 1 day for
rounding (1.075 years is 392.375 days), then you’re within 1 days of the
end of the parent fractal’s wave or point 5 of 5 on the first
chart.
One
last thing. March 26, 2009 is a McHugh Phi change in trend date.
Except for his March 13, 2009 Phi date, they have been very accurate over the
course of this bear.
Just
some thoughts in case it, as improbable as it is, does occur.
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