As I posted in early February, the Puetz crash window occurs
twice a year. It is a six week window that envelopes twice annual solar
eclipses and focuses on the proximate full moon that is also an eclipse. Eliades
and Carolan have separately evaluated Steve Puetz’ original work that
found ALL the greatest crashes have all occurred within that six week window; a
vast statistical anomaly. Importantly, crashes are NOT DESTINED to occur
in the window. Rather, IF a major crash occurs, it does not occur outside
the window. The Puetz window is simply a statistically noteworthy period;
don’t overstate its significance, just recognize it. Both of last
year’s major downturns (Jan-March and August-October) were entirely
consistent with the two Puetz windows of the year.
February 9 was a key date in the first of two windows this
year. It was the full moon and lunar eclipse that followed the Jan 26
solar eclipse. We are in the sweet spot of the window that can extend yet
another 3 weeks or so. Since Feb 9, you may note the early stages of what
MIGHT become a panic. Certainly the public anxt is consistent with a
panic.
Now consider, October 5, 1987 was the 1987 ‘comparable’
to February 9, 2009. Both were the full moon and lunar eclipse
proximate to a solar eclipse and both were a Monday (e.g. in the Puetz window).
Two weeks after October 5, 1987, the Dow dropped 22% and on October 30, 1987,
it recovered 10%. A huge ‘V’ bottom. Monday would be
comparable to October 29, 1987. In contrast, 1987 was in the fall Puetz
window, the second of two windows in 1987 and we are currently in the first of
the windows.