Not by a long shot, but confused is probably
the wrong word.
Forecasts are fine but you win or lose
based on what you do after you get your fills, so I
have some additional questions that deal with how on earth you're
supposed to trade this valuable "information".
First, the daily range for Monday is given as
+82/-49 with a close of -45. Being that's a 131 point range, or 15%, I'd
say it's a safe bet we fall under that (although that or more would be just
fine with me). I'd also take the other side of your -45
Close trade but that's not relevant to the discussion.
Bob the beauty of this is that it tells
you at what price level on sp500 you should go long, and where to put your
stop loss
so for example if you buy sso at 24
monday when sp is at 860 you would put a stop loss at 22.68
and if and when we hit 25 you buy 25% more of
your position, as by fri it will be 32
Second, where do I go long or short?
Do I wait to go short until it's up 82 or go long when it's -49? Or to
put it another way, you mean I have to watch - and most likely miss - an 82
point rally (780 points on the Dow, and this would be the minimum if we
don't trade under Friday's close) and then short it looking for a -45
Close/-425 Dow points.....a 1,300 point reversal...? I can't speak for
anyone else, but if that's the case then I'm firing myself first thing in the
morning.
it is wery simple,, each day could open
big gap up or gap down based on futures
it also could trade unchange
so
the first 30 min you do nothing
you let the dust settle
then you look at the open the hi and
low
are we heading north or
south?
and you wait patiently to the day extreams to
enter
i have fidelity alert service
i set alerts to my blackberry
phone
and act on the alert
i could be out shopping or visiting
grandchildren
not sitting all day in front of
computer
Third, where is the initial Stop if one of
those extremes is hit? And if the trade actually works, how do
you trail a Stop? Profit objectives? Scale out or
all-in/out? Add-ons?
I gave the stop in the
example,,
Fourth, what if one of the extremes is hit, I
foolishly buy or sell and get stopped out (what I'd deserve), and then the
market comes back to that extreme.....do I buy or sell again? With
the same parameters?
never happen to me
i use options and, when i have 4 times my
money i am out
when i have 30% loss on option i am
out,
Last, you mentioned you're buying the 950 calls
if it hits 860 which is 10 points under Friday's close of 870ish. How
does this sync with the forecasted low of -49 or 820ish? Do you buy more
at 850, 840, 830, 820.....? Where are you wrong on this trade?
Also, what do you expect to pay for those calls if/when it hits 860?
I do not buy a falling knife
after we hit a low and trade back above 860
then i buy the calls
I have a secondary round of questions ready too
but I figure this is a good place to start.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, October 26, 2008 7:55
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] next week
forecast
Ben-
Do you provide supporting documentaion and literature for
anyone to understand what
you are trying (or not) to communcate? Does
ANYBODY?
understand how to use this data
and information? Does it
come with an instructional
manual; and is it clear how to
apply this
information? This is different from the old
information you used to
post
like 'up/'down to ?????? in 3-5 business days', giving S&P
price levels and measuring
that agains up/down volume and
advance/decline levels.
Now I'm reading about using
some sort of
multiplier based on the Vix.
I guess I'm the only one who is
confused.
Chas
====
On Sun, 26 Oct 2008 00:08:51
-0400
Ben <profitok@xxxxxxxxxxnet>
wrote:
> this week model a should work
> when vix is at
79.45
> you must adjust you day trades
> so for example
>
Monday close minus 13.75 should be 13.75times 3.3=45.375
> max up is
plus 25 that should be plus 82.5
> max down minus 15
> that
should be minus 49.5
> i expect this week to be nice UP week
>
min up 23.75
> max up 43.75
> with the adjustment=up in sp
points min 70 up max up
> 140sp points
> have a nice week
end
> Ben
> attach are the specifics for each day
> you
add the net change for monday and tuesday
> the closer to the correct
one is the model working
> i feel it most likely be model a
>
also
> if vix goes under 60 the multiplier will go to 2
> under
40 1.5
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: jon wu
>
To: realtraders@yahoogroups.com
> Sent: Saturday, October 25, 2008 8:40 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT]
next week forecast
>
>
> Hi Ben,
>
>
>
> I like to have the free trial next week. My email:
> wuw888@xxxxxxcom
>
>
> By the way, you are predicting 1150 ~ 1200 by Nov. 17
>-
24th.
> That is more than 30% increase from here ?
>
>
> Thanks
> jon
>
>
> On Sat, Oct 25, 2008
at 11:54 AM, Ben
><profitok@xxxxxxxxxxnet>
wrote:
>
>
> Deborah Bernstein
> or anyone, who
would like to prove its accuracy is
>welcome for a free week
>
nice week end
> Ben
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
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>
>
>
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Date: 10/25/2008 5:55 PM