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Not by a long shot, but confused is probably the
wrong word.
Forecasts are fine but you win or lose based
on what you do after you get your fills, so I have some
additional questions that deal with how on earth you're supposed to
trade this valuable "information".
First, the daily range for Monday is given as
+82/-49 with a close of -45. Being that's a 131 point range, or 15%, I'd
say it's a safe bet we fall under that (although that or more would be just fine
with me). I'd also take the other side of your -45 Close trade
but that's not relevant to the discussion.
Second, where do I go long or short?
Do I wait to go short until it's up 82 or go long when it's -49? Or to put
it another way, you mean I have to watch - and most likely miss - an 82 point
rally (780 points on the Dow, and this would be the minimum if we don't
trade under Friday's close) and then short it looking for a -45 Close/-425 Dow
points.....a 1,300 point reversal...? I can't speak for anyone else, but
if that's the case then I'm firing myself first thing in the
morning.
Third, where is the initial Stop if one of those
extremes is hit? And if the trade actually works, how do
you trail a Stop? Profit objectives? Scale out or
all-in/out? Add-ons?
Fourth, what if one of the extremes is hit, I
foolishly buy or sell and get stopped out (what I'd deserve), and then the
market comes back to that extreme.....do I buy or sell again? With the
same parameters?
Last, you mentioned you're buying the 950 calls
if it hits 860 which is 10 points under Friday's close of 870ish. How does
this sync with the forecasted low of -49 or 820ish? Do you buy more at
850, 840, 830, 820.....? Where are you wrong on this trade? Also,
what do you expect to pay for those calls if/when it hits 860?
I have a secondary round of questions ready too
but I figure this is a good place to start.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, October 26, 2008 7:55
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] next week
forecast
Ben-
Do you provide supporting documentaion and literature for
anyone to understand what
you are trying (or not) to communcate? Does
ANYBODY?
understand how to use this data
and information? Does it come
with an instructional
manual; and is it clear how to
apply this
information? This is different from the old
information you used to
post
like 'up/'down to ?????? in 3-5 business days', giving S&P
price levels and measuring
that agains up/down volume and
advance/decline levels.
Now I'm reading about using
some sort of
multiplier based on the Vix.
I guess I'm the only one who is
confused.
Chas
====
On Sun, 26 Oct 2008 00:08:51 -0400
Ben
<profitok@xxxxxxxxxxnet>
wrote:
> this week model a should work
> when vix is at
79.45
> you must adjust you day trades
> so for example
>
Monday close minus 13.75 should be 13.75times 3.3=45.375
> max up is
plus 25 that should be plus 82.5
> max down minus 15
> that should
be minus 49.5
> i expect this week to be nice UP week
> min up
23.75
> max up 43.75
> with the adjustment=up in sp points min 70
up max up
> 140sp points
> have a nice week end
>
Ben
> attach are the specifics for each day
> you add the net
change for monday and tuesday
> the closer to the correct one is the
model working
> i feel it most likely be model a
> also
> if
vix goes under 60 the multiplier will go to 2
> under 40 1.5
>
----- Original Message -----
> From: jon wu
> To: realtraders@yahoogroups.com
> Sent: Saturday, October 25, 2008 8:40 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT]
next week forecast
>
>
> Hi Ben,
>
>
>
> I like to have the free trial next week. My email:
> wuw888@xxxxxxcom
>
>
> By the way, you are predicting 1150 ~ 1200 by Nov. 17
>-
24th.
> That is more than 30% increase from here ?
>
>
> Thanks
> jon
>
>
> On Sat, Oct 25, 2008 at
11:54 AM, Ben
><profitok@xxxxxxxxxxnet>
wrote:
>
>
> Deborah Bernstein
> or anyone, who
would like to prove its accuracy is
>welcome for a free week
>
nice week end
> Ben
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
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>
>
>
> No virus found in this incoming message.
>
Checked by AVG - http://www.avg.com
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>Release
Date: 10/25/2008 5:55
PM
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