Re: [RT] Re: What's next, RealTraders Email List Archive

There are the bull/bear sentiment numbers which you need to compare to the past in order for them to make sense as you need to know what the average percentages are for the current numbers to mean much.

There is this list and all the other lists I belong to. There are the talking heads on CNBC and other financial networks. There are the financial blogs and news-letters. There are the technicians and the fundamentalists and finally, there are the bus drivers and barbers. When nearly all of them begin agreeing on what is going to happen next, I start putting money on the other side of that thinking. When a huge number of players are short and they get it wrong, those on the long side are going to be happy campers due to the short covering. Of course, the whole scenario can be turned around but you can't make as much money being short since you don't have the position covering although you do have the panic to get out.

One web site where you can see the sentiment numbers is: http://www.market-harmonics.com/free-charts/sentiment/investors_intelligence.htm

All best,

Bob

On Sat, Aug 16, 2008 at 11:14 PM, <caroline@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:

Hi Bob,

Apologies for the newbie question, but how do you tell?

I did predict that all the confident longs would get shaken out of
gold if they bought around $850 but it was becuase everyone was saying
it newsletters, blogs, etc.

I would like to learn more about how to determine where the overall
sentiment is in the markets as you describe below. Any info or links
to more information is greatly appreciated.

Thank you,
Caroline

> 1a. What's next
> Posted by: "Robert Arbuckle" bobskc@xxxxxxxxxxxx bobskc1
> Date: Fri Aug 15, 2008 12:22 pm ((PDT))

>
> I realized today that I have not seen so many people on one side of the
> market since I have been trading. (37 years). It seems that everyone and I
> do mean *everyone* either thinks we are going down short term or long term
> or both. I can see the argument clearly but I also know how much money I've
> made taking the contrarian side and when I see this much over-load to one
> way of thinking, I'm not going to put much faith in it happening.
>
> Hope everyone had a great week.
>
> Bob
>

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