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This is not about trading but it is about the
economy by a man that I respect very much. What is stated here will have a
definite affect upon the markets in the future.
Sent: Friday, July 11, 2008 6:39 PM
Subject: FW: An Article by Thomas Friedman
He is always so right on target!
From the July 10, 2008, South Florida
Sun-Sentinel, syndicated from The New York
Times
We Are A Country In Crisis
by Thomas L.
Friedman
Just a few months ago, the consensus was that Barack Obama would
need to choose
a hard-core national security type as his vice presidential
running mate to compensate
for his lack of foreign policy experience and
that John McCain would need a running
mate who was young and sprightly to
compensate for his age.
Come August, though, I predict both men will be looking for a
financial wizard as their
running mates to help them steer America out of
what colud become a serious
economic tailspin.
I do not believe nation-building in
Iraq is going to be the the issue come November --
whether things get
better there or worse. If they get better, we'll ignore Iraq more;
if
they get worse, the next president will be under pressure to get out
quicker. I think
nation-building in America is going to be the
issue.
It's the state
of America now that is the most gripping source of anxiety for
Americans,
not al-Qaida or Iraq. Anyone who thinks they are going to
win this election playing the
Iraq or the terrorism card -- one way or
another -- is seriously deluded. Things have
changed.
Up to now, the economic crisis we've
been in has been largely a credit crisis in the
capital markets, while
consumer spending has kept reasonably steady, as have
manufacturing and
exports. But with Banks still reluctant to lend even to
healthy
businesses, fuel and food prices soaring and home prices declining,
this is starting
to affect consumers. Unemployment is already
creeping up and manufacturing
creeping down.
The straws in the wind are hard to
ignore. If you visit any car dealership in America
today you will see
row after row of unsold SUV's. And if you own a gas guzzler
already,
good luck. Just be glad you don't drive a bus.
Motgomery, County, MD, where I live,
just announced that more
children are going to have to walk to school next year to
save money on
bus fuel.
On
top of it all, our bank crisis is not over. Two weeks ago, Goldman Sachs
anylysts
said that U.S. banks may need another $65 billion to cover more
write-downs of bad
mortgage-related instruments and potential new losses if
consumer loans start to buckle.
Since President Bush came to office, our
national savings have gone from 6 percent of
gross domestic product to 1
percent, and consumer debt has climbed from $8 trillion
to $14
trillion.
We are a
country in debt and in decline -- not terminal, not irreversible, but in
decline.
Our political system seems incapable of producing long-range
answers to big problems
or big opportunities. We are the ones who
need a better-functioning democracy -- more
than the Iraqis and Afghans.
We are the ones in need of nation-building. It is our
political
system that is not working.
I continue to be appalled at the gap
between what is clearly going to be the next great
global industry --
renewable energy and clean power -- and the inability of Congress and
the
administration to put in place the bold policies we need to ensure that
America leads
that industry.
"America and its political leaders, after two decades of failing to
come together have lost
faith in their ability to do so," Wall Street
Journal columnist Gerald Selb, noted. "A political
system that
expects failure doesn't try very hard to produce anything
else."
We used to try
harder and do better. After the 1973 oil crisis, we came together and
made
dramatic improvements in energy efficiency. After Social
Security became imperiled in
the early 1980's, we came together and fixed
it for that moment. "But today," added
Robert Hormats, vice chairman
of Goldman Sachs International, "the political system
seems incapable of
producing a critical mass to support any kind of serious
long-term
reform."
If the old saying -- that "as General Motors goes, so goes America"
-- is true, then folks,
we're in a lot of trouble, General Motors'
stock-market value now stands at just $6.47 billion,
compared with Toyota's
$162.6 billion. On top of it, GM shares saink to a 34-year low
last
week.
That's us.
We're at a 34-year low. And digging out of this hole is what the
next election
has to be about and is going to be about -- even if it is
interrupted by a terrorist attack
or an outbreak of war or peace in Iraq.
We need nation-building at home. Vote for
the candidate who
you think will do that best. Nothing else matters.
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