At 01:35 PM 6/20/2008, you wrote:
this 55 days
picks change in trend better than 80% of the
time
When in doubt, measure... :-)
I used a
zig zag indicator to find tops and bottoms as in the attached chart of the
SPX Index.
I had it count the daily bars:
From this Top to the last Bottom (Column A) and to the last Top (Column
B), and
From this Bottom to the last Top (Column A) and to
the last Bottom (Column B).
Below are the numbers for 20
years.
I see a lot of variation...
Bob
Fulks
Date
Event A
B
11/16/1988
Bot 17
60
02/08/1989 Top
57 74
02/27/1989
Bot 12
69
10/10/1989 Top
157 169
10/16/1989
Bot 4
161
01/03/1990 Top
54 58
01/30/1990
Bot 19
73
04/16/1990 Top
52 71
04/30/1990
Bot 10
62
06/05/1990 Top
25 35
06/27/1990
Bot 16
41
07/16/1990 Top
12 28
10/11/1990
Bot 62
74
12/06/1990 Top
39 101
01/14/1991
Bot 25
64
04/17/1991 Top
65 90
05/15/1991
Bot 20
85
05/31/1991 Top
11 31
06/28/1991
Bot 20
31
09/03/1991 Top
45 65
10/10/1991
Bot 27
72
11/14/1991 Top
25 52
12/02/1991
Bot 11
36
01/15/1992 Top
30 41
04/08/1992
Bot 59
89
05/11/1992 Top
22 81
06/22/1992
Bot 29
51
08/04/1992 Top
30 59
08/25/1992
Bot 15
45
09/14/1992 Top
13 28
10/05/1992
Bot 15
28
12/29/1992 Top
59 74
01/08/1993
Bot 7
66
03/11/1993 Top
43 50
04/26/1993
Bot 31
74
06/01/1993 Top
25 56
07/07/1993
Bot 25
50
09/01/1993 Top
40 65
09/21/1993
Bot 13
53
10/15/1993 Top
18 31
11/05/1993
Bot 15
33
01/31/1994 Top
59 74
04/04/1994
Bot 43
102
06/15/1994 Top
50 93
06/27/1994
Bot 8
58
08/31/1994 Top
46 54
10/05/1994
Bot 24
70
10/31/1994 Top
18 42
12/09/1994
Bot 28
46
01/04/1996 Top
269 297
01/10/1996
Bot 4
273
02/13/1996 Top
24 28
04/11/1996
Bot 40
64
05/23/1996 Top
30 70
07/16/1996
Bot 36
66
11/26/1996 Top
94 130
12/17/1996
Bot 14
108
02/19/1997 Top
43 57
04/14/1997
Bot 37
80
08/07/1997 Top
81 118
08/18/1997
Bot 7
88
10/08/1997 Top
36 43
10/28/1997
Bot 14
50
12/05/1997 Top
27 41
01/12/1998
Bot 24
51
04/22/1998 Top
69 93
05/28/1998
Bot 25
94
07/20/1998 Top
36 61
10/08/1998
Bot 57
93
05/13/1999 Top
149 206
05/27/1999
Bot 10
159
07/19/1999 Top
35 45
08/10/1999
Bot 16
51
08/25/1999 Top
11 27
10/18/1999
Bot 37
48
01/03/2000 Top
53 90
02/28/2000
Bot 38
91
03/24/2000 Top
19 57
04/14/2000
Bot 15
34
07/17/2000 Top
63 78
07/28/2000
Bot 9
72
09/01/2000 Top
25 34
12/21/2000
Bot 77
102
01/31/2001 Top
26 103
03/22/2001
Bot 35
61
05/22/2001 Top
42 77
09/21/2001
Bot 81
123
01/07/2002 Top
73 154
02/20/2002
Bot 30
103
03/19/2002 Top
19 49
07/24/2002
Bot 88
107
08/22/2002 Top
21 109
10/10/2002
Bot 34
55
12/02/2002 Top
36 70
03/12/2003
Bot 68
104
07/14/2003 Top
85 153
08/06/2003
Bot 17
102
03/05/2004 Top
146 163
03/24/2004
Bot 13
159
04/05/2004
Top 8
21
05/12/2004 Bot
26 34
06/24/2004
Top 29
55
08/13/2004 Bot
35 64
10/06/2004
Top 37
72
10/25/2004 Bot
13 50
01/03/2005
Top 48
61
01/24/2005 Bot
14 62
03/07/2005
Top 29
43
04/20/2005 Bot
31 60
08/03/2005
Top 73
104
08/30/2005 Bot
19 92
09/09/2005
Top 7
26
10/13/2005 Bot
24 31
05/08/2006
Top 141
165
06/14/2006 Bot
26 167
02/22/2007
Top 173
199
03/14/2007 Bot
14 187
06/01/2007
Top 55
69
06/27/2007 Bot
18 73
07/16/2007
Top 12
30
08/16/2007 Bot
23 35
10/11/2007
Top 39
62
11/26/2007 Bot
31 70
12/11/2007
Top 11
42
01/23/2008 Bot
28 39
02/01/2008
Top 7
35
03/17/2008 Bot
30 37
05/19/2008
Top 44
74