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At 01:35 PM 6/20/2008, you wrote:
this 55 days picks change in
trend better than 80% of the
time
When in doubt, measure... :-)
I used a zig zag indicator to find tops and bottoms as in the attached
chart of the SPX Index.
I had it count the daily bars:
From this Top to the last Bottom (Column A) and to the last
Top (Column B), and
From this Bottom to the last Top (Column A) and to the last
Bottom (Column B).
Below are the numbers for 20 years.
I see a lot of variation...
Bob Fulks
Date
Event A
B
11/16/1988 Bot
17 60
02/08/1989 Top
57 74
02/27/1989 Bot
12 69
10/10/1989 Top
157 169
10/16/1989 Bot
4 161
01/03/1990 Top
54 58
01/30/1990 Bot
19 73
04/16/1990 Top
52 71
04/30/1990 Bot
10 62
06/05/1990 Top
25 35
06/27/1990 Bot
16 41
07/16/1990 Top
12 28
10/11/1990 Bot
62 74
12/06/1990 Top
39 101
01/14/1991 Bot
25 64
04/17/1991 Top
65 90
05/15/1991 Bot
20 85
05/31/1991 Top
11 31
06/28/1991 Bot
20 31
09/03/1991 Top
45 65
10/10/1991 Bot
27 72
11/14/1991 Top
25 52
12/02/1991 Bot
11 36
01/15/1992 Top
30 41
04/08/1992 Bot
59 89
05/11/1992 Top
22 81
06/22/1992 Bot
29 51
08/04/1992 Top
30 59
08/25/1992 Bot
15 45
09/14/1992 Top
13 28
10/05/1992 Bot
15 28
12/29/1992 Top
59 74
01/08/1993 Bot
7 66
03/11/1993 Top
43 50
04/26/1993 Bot
31 74
06/01/1993 Top
25 56
07/07/1993 Bot
25 50
09/01/1993 Top
40 65
09/21/1993 Bot
13 53
10/15/1993 Top
18 31
11/05/1993 Bot
15 33
01/31/1994 Top
59 74
04/04/1994 Bot
43 102
06/15/1994 Top
50 93
06/27/1994 Bot
8 58
08/31/1994 Top
46 54
10/05/1994 Bot
24 70
10/31/1994 Top
18 42
12/09/1994 Bot
28 46
01/04/1996 Top
269 297
01/10/1996 Bot
4 273
02/13/1996 Top
24 28
04/11/1996 Bot
40 64
05/23/1996 Top
30 70
07/16/1996 Bot
36 66
11/26/1996 Top
94 130
12/17/1996 Bot
14 108
02/19/1997 Top
43 57
04/14/1997 Bot
37 80
08/07/1997 Top
81 118
08/18/1997 Bot
7 88
10/08/1997 Top
36 43
10/28/1997 Bot
14 50
12/05/1997 Top
27 41
01/12/1998 Bot
24 51
04/22/1998 Top
69 93
05/28/1998 Bot
25 94
07/20/1998 Top
36 61
10/08/1998 Bot
57 93
05/13/1999 Top
149 206
05/27/1999 Bot
10 159
07/19/1999 Top
35 45
08/10/1999 Bot
16 51
08/25/1999 Top
11 27
10/18/1999 Bot
37 48
01/03/2000 Top
53 90
02/28/2000 Bot
38 91
03/24/2000 Top
19 57
04/14/2000 Bot
15 34
07/17/2000 Top
63 78
07/28/2000 Bot
9 72
09/01/2000 Top
25 34
12/21/2000 Bot
77 102
01/31/2001 Top
26 103
03/22/2001 Bot
35 61
05/22/2001 Top
42 77
09/21/2001 Bot
81 123
01/07/2002 Top
73 154
02/20/2002 Bot
30 103
03/19/2002 Top
19 49
07/24/2002 Bot
88 107
08/22/2002 Top
21 109
10/10/2002 Bot
34 55
12/02/2002 Top
36 70
03/12/2003 Bot
68 104
07/14/2003 Top
85 153
08/06/2003 Bot
17 102
03/05/2004 Top
146 163
03/24/2004 Bot
13 159
04/05/2004 Top
8 21
05/12/2004 Bot
26 34
06/24/2004 Top
29 55
08/13/2004 Bot
35 64
10/06/2004 Top
37 72
10/25/2004 Bot
13 50
01/03/2005 Top
48 61
01/24/2005 Bot
14 62
03/07/2005 Top
29 43
04/20/2005 Bot
31 60
08/03/2005 Top
73 104
08/30/2005 Bot
19 92
09/09/2005 Top
7 26
10/13/2005 Bot
24 31
05/08/2006 Top
141 165
06/14/2006 Bot
26 167
02/22/2007 Top
173 199
03/14/2007 Bot
14 187
06/01/2007 Top
55 69
06/27/2007 Bot
18 73
07/16/2007 Top
12 30
08/16/2007 Bot
23 35
10/11/2007 Top
39 62
11/26/2007 Bot
31 70
12/11/2007 Top
11 42
01/23/2008 Bot
28 39
02/01/2008 Top
7 35
03/17/2008 Bot
30 37
05/19/2008 Top
44 74
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