Hi Bob
Since the turn in Silver and Gold was
significant, we should expect the one in Oil and the USD to be as well. If the
SPX also turns this week, then we have all markets turning on this PI/PEI
date.
Since I don't believe the SPX
can rally until the next PI/PEI cycle of mid April 09, then Gold,
Oil and the USD may also be in a temporary correction, which could
last a month or two.
Based on weekly closing prices All markets
bounced from the 1982 uptrend line, Fib 38% level and combined parallel
channel. We could certainly retest that level, or break it to make a
small 5 Waves down visible from the Jan 30 high, or we are already done for a
while.
I still believe the 1982 uptrend line is
key, and will need to be broken by at least 10% to give a decent rally back to
test it and fail before any serious change of trend is recognized. The next 15
month cycle in Jan 09 and/or the PI/PEI date of Apr 09 could be such a retest
of the 1982 trend line.
Good Luck
wxman,
I don't like the prospects for gold due to the likelihood
that most markets are
reversing trends, especially the dollar.
In
fact, I agree mostly with Prechter that it's "all one market" -- the
dollar.
However, I think that gold is probably in much better shape than
oil.
Of course, almost everything looks better than oil to me right now
on the long
term. I've been swayed by the fundamentals of energy. The huge
runup in oil
looks like a swan song to me. If gold was pulled up by oil, it
may be pulled
down again by the dying of oil. Can we discount that
possibility? Oil started
its thrust upward in 1998, and gold took a few
more years to get going. Does
that make it the weaker sister? If that's
true, gold could be weaker than oil.
There are a lot of technical
problems with gold and the uncertainty of that
means
to me it could be a
big problem for long term investors.
The other objection I have to gold
is that it is a huge contributor to
pollution. We would be a lot better off
with the environment if we just stopped
mining the stuff.
--- Martha
and Jeff <ploshay@xxxxxcom>
wrote:
> Bob,
> Have you expressed an opinion on gold?
>
Do you feel that it will drop as the price of oil drops?
>
>
> wxman
>
> Please note: message attached
>
>
>
__________________________________________________________
>
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>
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>
>
> ------------------------------------
>
> Yahoo! Groups Links
>
>
>
> > To: TimeandCycles@yahoogroups.com
>
From: Bob Carver <bcarver@xxxxxxcom>
> Date:
Sat, 22 Mar 2008 21:27:07 -0700 (PDT)
> Subject: Re: [TimeandCycles] Re:
Everything came together for the PEI date
>
> Edward,
>
> I don't need faith. I reviewed the patent application for
>
accuracy before it was submitted.
>
> I also have researched the
subject extensively. Even if our
> thermopower generator fails to
deliver (I put the chances of
> that at less than 5%, but certainly not
0), there are other
> groups working on the problem who have a good
chance of getting
> it working before too long.
>
> It's
almost a certainty. No faith required. Oil will be at
> $10/bbl in the
not too distant future and the economy will be
> far stronger than the
crowd thinks it will be.
>
> --- EDWARD MOYER <moyer_edward@yahoo.com>
wrote:
>
> > You put far more faith in the power of
putatively
> > (far) lower energy prices to counteract the mess
we
> > are in than I, Bob, and this is from someone who would
>
> prefer you be correct.
> >
> > --- Bob Carver <bcarver@xxxxxxcom>
wrote:
> >
> > > Edward,
> > >
> >
> Concurrently with the price of oil plunging 90%
> > > (which
will, by itself,
> > > tremendously reduce the amount of money
going out of
> > > the country), the cost
> > >
savings from reduced energy expenditures will boost
> > >
productivity and buying
> > > power of the consumer.
> >
>
> > > As they say,
> > >
> > > "The
future's so bright, you have to wear shades!"
> > >
> >
> --- EDWARD MOYER <moyer_edward@yahoo.com>
wrote:
> > >
> > > > Hi Bob,
> > >
>
> > > > Perhaps you could elaborate on this idea. In
the
> > > > meantime, consider that the only thing that
keeps
> > > the
> > > > U.S. government running is
massive amounts of
> > > > borrowing by foreigners, foreigners
that happen to
> > > be,
> > > > geo-politically
speaking, our greatest
> > > competitors.
> > > >
How long do you imagine that state of affairs will
> > > >
continue, and what are the likely responses by the
> > > >
monetary authorities to make up the inevitable
> > > >
shortfall?
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
>
> > > >
> > > > --- Bob Carver <bcarver@xxxxxxcom>
wrote:
> > > >
> > > > > Edward,
>
> > > >
> > > > > If we could keep
$500,000,000,000 from going out
> > > of
> > >
> > the country, don't you think
> > > > > would turn
the decline in the dollar upside
> > > down?
> > >
> >
> > > > > Getting rid of oil imports would do
that ... and
> > > > > it's coming soon!
> > >
> >
> > > > > --- EDWARD MOYER <moyer_edward@yahoo.com>
wrote:
> > > > >
> > > > > > And they
will fail miserably, because the
> > > > >
structural
> > > > > > problems that gave rise to the
dollar bear
> > > have
> > > > > not
>
> > > > > been addressed at all.
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > > > >
> > >
> > Bob Carver "When the situation changes, I
> > >
change.
> > > > > What do you do?" --John Maynard
>
> > > > Keynes
> > > > >
> > > >
> bcarver@xxxxxxcom |
> > > > > bobc@xxxxxxxxxxxxnet
>
> > > >
> > > >
> > > >
>
> > >
> > > >
> > > >
> >
>
>
>
>
__________________________________________________________
>
> > > Never miss a thing. Make Yahoo your home page.
> >
> > http://www.yahoo.com/r/hs
>
> > >
> > > >
------------------------------------
> > > >
> > > > Yahoo! Groups Links
> > > >
>
> > >
> > > >
> > > >
> >
>
> > >
> > > Bob Carver "When the situation
changes, I change.
> > > What do you do?" --John Maynard
>
> > Keynes
> > >
> > > bcarver@xxxxxxcom |
> >
> bobc@xxxxxxxxxxxxnet
>
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
>
>
>
__________________________________________________________
>
> Looking for last minute shopping deals?
> > Find them fast with
Yahoo! Search.
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>
>
> > ------------------------------------
>
>
> > Yahoo! Groups Links
> >
> >
>
>
> >
>
>
> Bob Carver "When the situation
changes, I change.
> What do you do?" --John Maynard Keynes
>
> bcarver@xxxxxxcom | bobc@xxxxxxxxxxxxnet
>
Bob Carver "When the situation changes, I change.
What do you do?"
--John Maynard Keynes
bcarver@xxxxxxcom | bobc@xxxxxxxxxxxxnet
