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Try reading some books featuring monetarist economic
theory and the associated history. Milton Friedman and
George Stigler, for example, both published great
works that not only taught the consequences of the
policies we are living through right now, but
Friedman's best known book deals in detail with the
period of WWI through the great Depression and will
tell you exactly what to expect and how to deal with
it.
Ira is correct: Policy makers and the public in
general do not want to deal with the truth. Only pain
is going to fix this problem.
Bear Stearns on Friday? I have first hand knowlege of
two other investment firms that will soon be making
the same announcements. We are only beginning the
first few steps of the journey down this very long and
ugly road. Until someone in power steps up and
addresses the problems with real medicine, it's only
going to get worse.
IF the Fed cuts interest rates next week, you better
run for cover...
Tim Morge
www.marketgeometry.com
--- robert pisani <r.pisani@xxxxxxx> wrote:
>
> Thanks, Ira. I just want to figure out what's going
> to happen and
> position myself for it. The history of the Weimar
> Republic may well
> offer some clues, and I'll educate myself about it,
> but that history
> will only provide a model that has to be translated
> into the
> specifics of the world of today, with all its new
> economic and
> political interconnections.
>
> Who in particular is vulnerable? Who will benefit?
> What houses are
> on the precipice? What will be the initial warning
> signs? What
> events might trigger a precipitous collapse? How
> will the Fed
> respond? What will the Chinese do? And so on, the
> kind of analysis
> that Bruce Kovner must be making. I can make my own
> analysis, of
> course, but I would find it helpful to discuss these
> things with
> others who have perhaps thought about them more
> deeply than I have.
>
> Can anyone suggest a list where details of such
> things are discussed?
>
> Bob
>
>
>
> >I am afraid that we have seen such a free fall
> before. Try the
> >Weimar Republic, Germany, after WWI. They tried to
> devalue the Mark
> >to pay reparations with cheap Marks and it just got
> out of
> >hand. That is what brought Hitler to power. The
> young Turks of
> >today can't seem to learn from history. They
> didn't learn after the
> >multiple foreign loan disasters of the past and
> this time created
> >another loan disaster using mortgages and
> derivatives instead of
> >foreign debt.
> >
> >The government lied again about inflation. They
> have lied about
> >ethanol. They have lied about oil. What is the
> government doing
> >buying $100 plus oil?
> >Ira
> ><http://www.delta100.com>www.delta100.com
> >----- Original Message -----
> >From: <mailto:r.pisani@xxxxxxx>robert pisani
> >To:
>
<mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >Sent: Saturday, March 15, 2008 3:26 PM
> >Subject: [RT] free fallin'
> >
> >The current generation of Fed staff has not
> experienced a crisis like
> >this. Neither have previous generations of Fed
> staff. It is new
> >territory. There is apparently concern that the
> dollar could go into
> >a free fall -- not the free fall that it is in
> currently, but a
> >precipitous free fall. This would, of course, be
> new territory for
> >everyone, around the world.
> >
> >Naturally any company that has dollar income and
> must make ongoing
> >payments in other currencies and has not hedged
> itself against such
> >an event would be in deep trouble, while Coke might
> do okay. Firms
> >that rely on imports would be adversely affected.
> Fed note holders,
> >like bond funds, like China, and anyone else who
> had relied on the
> >stability of the dollar, would be badly hurt. Food
> prices would
> >rise. Oil would rise far beyond $110 a barrel.
> Perhaps some
> >brokerage firms and the accounts they hold and more
> firms like BSC
> >would be endangered. And so on.
> >
> >I'd like to see a careful and thoughtful analysis
> of the consequences
> >of such an event. Would someone here direct me to
> such an analysis?
> >
> >
>
>
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