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Thanks, Ira. I just want to figure out what's going to happen and
position myself for it. The history of the Weimar Republic may well
offer some clues, and I'll educate myself about it, but that history will
only provide a model that has to be translated into the specifics of the
world of today, with all its new economic and political
interconnections.
Who in particular is vulnerable? Who will benefit? What
houses are on the precipice? What will be the initial warning
signs? What events might trigger a precipitous collapse? How
will the Fed respond? What will the Chinese do? And so on,
the kind of analysis that Bruce Kovner must be making. I can make
my own analysis, of course, but I would find it helpful to discuss these
things with others who have perhaps thought about them more deeply than I
have.
Can anyone suggest a list where details of such things are
discussed?
Bob
I am afraid that we
have seen such a free fall before. Try the Weimar Republic,
Germany, after WWI. They tried to devalue the Mark to pay
reparations with cheap Marks and it just got out of hand. That is
what brought Hitler to power. The young Turks of today can't seem
to learn from history. They didn't learn after the multiple foreign
loan disasters of the past and this time created another loan disaster
using mortgages and derivatives instead of foreign debt.
The government lied again about inflation. They have
lied about ethanol. They have lied about oil. What is the
government doing buying $100 plus oil?
Ira
www.delta100.com
- ----- Original Message -----
- From: robert pisani
- To:
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
- Sent: Saturday, March 15, 2008 3:26 PM
- Subject: [RT] free fallin'
- The current generation of Fed staff has not experienced a crisis like
- this. Neither have previous generations of Fed staff. It is new
- territory. There is apparently concern that the dollar could go into
- a free fall -- not the free fall that it is in currently, but a
- precipitous free fall. This would, of course, be new territory for
- everyone, around the world.
- Naturally any company that has dollar income and must make ongoing
- payments in other currencies and has not hedged itself against such
- an event would be in deep trouble, while Coke might do okay. Firms
- that rely on imports would be adversely affected. Fed note holders,
- like bond funds, like China, and anyone else who had relied on the
- stability of the dollar, would be badly hurt. Food prices would
- rise. Oil would rise far beyond $110 a barrel. Perhaps some
- brokerage firms and the accounts they hold and more firms like BSC
- would be endangered. And so on.
- I'd like to see a careful and thoughtful analysis of the consequences
- of such an event. Would someone here direct me to such an
analysis?
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