HI Ben,
I could be wrong also, but much of my work indicates a
low on March
10th.
just to name a few things; bradley was due on 8th
so the 10th is
expected, and it was 8 cycle trade days from Feb27th, plus
there is lots
of tech evidence to indicate gross oversold, but whose
keeeping score?
theres more but its propietary
259 bar cycle @ 4pm,
so they could open down at the open if the bar
cycle did not hit its target
near 4pm.
That would mean a lower open at 9:35, but that should be it.
And thats
only IF it didnt hit today.
Jay
--- In TimeandCycles@yahoogroups.com,
Ben <profitok@xx.> wrote:
>
>
> max pain tomorrow
is 1268
> Ben
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Pat
Pate
> To: TimeandCycles@yahoogroups.com
>
Sent: Monday, March 10, 2008 6:53 PM
> Subject: Re: [TimeandCycles]
Model not working
>
>
>
> If it wasnt for the BSC
news(FINANCIALS)/ Elliott SPitzer news, the
morning looked like we
could POP to 1302es .....
> news driven markets ......1265es next
stop?
>
> Ben profitok@xxx wrote:
> Since 1976 I have tried
many systems
> and found out that when something does not work,, it does
NOT mean you
abandon it
> NOTHING is 100%
> so I still stick to
my guns
> buy stop for tomorrow
> 5 at 1287.75
> and 5 at
1291.75
> the candle we made today says that there is BETTER than
80%
probability of a lower low
> max pain tomorrow is 1268
>
----- Original Message -----
> From: T.Bavelaar
> To: TimeandCycles@yahoogroups.com
>
Sent: Tuesday, March 11, 2008 2:23 AM
> Subject: Re: [TimeandCycles]
Model not working
>
>
> Hi Ben and Griz,
> I wonder if
your systems are a good proxy for what is going on at the
hedge funds which
typically are very system oriented...
> In combination with the banks
being vigilant with margin calls it
might lead to few more blow-ups in near
future.
>
> Taco (starting the week with losing money on a Bund
future short
position after 10 good weeks this
year)
>
>
>
>
>
> Ben
wrote:
>
> Hello Griz814
> you are not alone
>
>
my system worked for 20 years
> and
> today did not
> if we
are not up tomorrow after making a low at 1268
> then something is
Terribly wrong
> Ben
> ----- Original Message -----
> From:
griz814
> To: TimeandCycles@yahoogroups.com
>
Sent: Monday, March 10, 2008 4:12 PM
> Subject: [TimeandCycles] Model
not working
>
>
> My stock market model based on market
correlations with other markets
did not foresee breaking the Mar 4 lows
this past Friday (Mar 7) or even
further today. I am still 90% long and
underwater on most positions
(except MSFT). The CITS from this model were
2/29 to 3/4 (which I
thought would be a low) and 3/12 (I anticipated a
high), and 3/24 (I
anticipated a low). Obviously the market has not
followed this model as
I anticipated. I had hoped to exit many of my longs
from early last week
on or near 3/12 (i.e., with a profit). Oh
well.
>
> Since the model has been violated, I will have to come
up with a
contingency plan. I could sell and take my losses, or hang in
there and
hope that the 3/12 CIT is a low. Since most of my positions are
not time
dependent options, and the sentiment measures I see are bullish, I
am
going to hang in there for now.
>
> I am thinking the
supprime mess has distorted the model, just like I
see Hurst cycles being
distorted. This mess may cause my short term long
positions to become
long-term positions. If we crash, I'm screwed, but
time can solve that
problem as well. Who said this was easy?
>
>
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