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[RT] Re: [TimeandCycles] Re: Model not working



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Hello Jerjay
 
a few other things point to  a bottom
the vix pierce  the upper Bollinger band
the 10 day trin is at 20 day hi
and
most important
we have my most important indicator,
(the one that a few weeks ago gave the kiss of death ,If anyone remembers,,) is now bullish!!
Ben
----- Original Message -----
From: gerjay
Sent: Monday, March 10, 2008 7:28 PM
Subject: [TimeandCycles] Re: Model not working


HI Ben,

I could be wrong also, but much of my work indicates a low on March
10th.

just to name a few things; bradley was due on 8th so the 10th is
expected, and it was 8 cycle trade days from Feb27th, plus there is lots
of tech evidence to indicate gross oversold, but whose keeeping score?
theres more but its propietary

259 bar cycle @ 4pm, so they could open down at the open if the bar
cycle did not hit its target near 4pm.

That would mean a lower open at 9:35, but that should be it. And thats
only IF it didnt hit today.

Jay

--- In TimeandCycles@yahoogroups.com, Ben <profitok@xx.> wrote:
>
>
> max pain tomorrow is 1268
> Ben
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Pat Pate
> To: TimeandCycles@yahoogroups.com
> Sent: Monday, March 10, 2008 6:53 PM
> Subject: Re: [TimeandCycles] Model not working
>
>
>
> If it wasnt for the BSC news(FINANCIALS)/ Elliott SPitzer news, the
morning looked like we could POP to 1302es .....
> news driven markets ......1265es next stop?
>
> Ben profitok@xxx wrote:
> Since 1976 I have tried many systems
> and found out that when something does not work,, it does NOT mean you
abandon it
> NOTHING is 100%
> so I still stick to my guns
> buy stop for tomorrow
> 5 at 1287.75
> and 5 at 1291.75
> the candle we made today says that there is BETTER than 80%
probability of a lower low
> max pain tomorrow is 1268
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: T.Bavelaar
> To: TimeandCycles@yahoogroups.com
> Sent: Tuesday, March 11, 2008 2:23 AM
> Subject: Re: [TimeandCycles] Model not working
>
>
> Hi Ben and Griz,
> I wonder if your systems are a good proxy for what is going on at the
hedge funds which typically are very system oriented...
> In combination with the banks being vigilant with margin calls it
might lead to few more blow-ups in near future.
>
> Taco (starting the week with losing money on a Bund future short
position after 10 good weeks this year)
>
>
>
>
>
> Ben wrote:
>
> Hello Griz814
> you are not alone
>
> my system worked for 20 years
> and
> today did not
> if we are not up tomorrow after making a low at 1268
> then something is Terribly wrong
> Ben
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: griz814
> To: TimeandCycles@yahoogroups.com
> Sent: Monday, March 10, 2008 4:12 PM
> Subject: [TimeandCycles] Model not working
>
>
> My stock market model based on market correlations with other markets
did not foresee breaking the Mar 4 lows this past Friday (Mar 7) or even
further today. I am still 90% long and underwater on most positions
(except MSFT). The CITS from this model were 2/29 to 3/4 (which I
thought would be a low) and 3/12 (I anticipated a high), and 3/24 (I
anticipated a low). Obviously the market has not followed this model as
I anticipated. I had hoped to exit many of my longs from early last week
on or near 3/12 (i.e., with a profit). Oh well.
>
> Since the model has been violated, I will have to come up with a
contingency plan. I could sell and take my losses, or hang in there and
hope that the 3/12 CIT is a low. Since most of my positions are not time
dependent options, and the sentiment measures I see are bullish, I am
going to hang in there for now.
>
> I am thinking the supprime mess has distorted the model, just like I
see Hurst cycles being distorted. This mess may cause my short term long
positions to become long-term positions. If we crash, I'm screwed, but
time can solve that problem as well. Who said this was easy?
>
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