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Bob,
Ira said that he has been using his system
for 35 years without the need for any changes across different markets as well
as (constantly) differing conditions. If your system provides for the basic
interference of human nature in the path of
price discovering value, then you have a system that does not
require any changes.
Despite my earnings having gone up many-fold
from the 80s, even today I remain the same as far as my emotions go. No doubt I
have surrounded myself with all the material trappings that money can buy; I
have a bigger bank balance etc. but relatively, my equation with the markets
remains the same. I may have 100K to blow on a single trade now but will my
mind allow me to function effectively after that? That is the real question. Definitions
of greed fear and hope will remain the same- only the props may change. James
Bond in the 70s flew a biplane but in 2010 he will fly an A380- but a plane is
a plane is a plane. Bond’s relation with the plane did not change, only
the sophistication of the plane did. Craig may make for a dapper Bond in 2007 but
we all thought Connery was pretty dapper too, back then. It is all a matter of
seeing the surroundings or the substance. James Bond the character is the
substance- Craig or Connery are the surroundings. Measures will keep differing.
In the 20s you were rich if you drove a Model T, while now it is whether you
own a Ferretti 80 footer yacht with all fittings. Tomorrow it may be whether
you have your own Inter-Galactic Hopper to whiz into Andromeda for a weekend
holiday- who knows? Who thought Cellphones would be reality but now teenagers
become dysfunctional if they don’t possess one! Cannot life go on without
these? Only our identifications change, not life itself.
Not being critical here but I sense a
feeling of nostalgia and some cynicism for how things have changed. But the
biggest challenge of life is to accept changes and then see how we can
deal with them. The current days are going to be nostalgic times for a Bob Jr.
20years from today, don’t you think? After all, it was Elliot himself who
stated that mankind was ever on a path of advancement and every achievement of
one generation shall be exceeded by the next (thus making for his Impulse
theory of the markets). All such changes bring their own positives and
negatives but does man’s nature change, essentially? Not really.
We are our thoughts and the bundle of
energy that is the body-mind-intellect equipment we call a human being,
functions by harnessing the energy in the form of thoughts and directing it
outward in the form of action. The basic principles of life still remain the
same- food, shelter and clothing. How much of each is the only difference- thru
time. You said in your mail “today is about today. Yesterday it was about
tomorrow”. I beg to differ. It is always about tomorrow. Especially
markets. We verily create the market that we get. Trades acting on their
beliefs about tomorrow (which in itself is arrived at thru their own lens of
wants and needs and fears and aspirations) decide how the market of the future
is going to be. The future is just the product of the past modified by our
actions in the present.
I have sophisticated softwares and systems-am
I less fearful of the market now? No. I have lots of money and comforts- is my
greed any lesser? No. I have been there and done that in most areas in the past
30 years of market association- are my hopes and aspirations any less or any
more? Indeed not. By all standard measures, I am comfortably placed in life- are
my anxieties about life and health and future prosperity gone because? No way.
Basic nature of man does not change no
matter how many eons go. Indeed, it is all these emotions that drive us to be
ever persistent in the path we call progress. But what, really, is progress? That
may be an entire new topic for discussion! But ever since I began accepting
things the way they are, life has become simpler, easier to deal with and above
all, happier. And of course, the markets have become so much friendlier. Acceptance
modifies the fear, makes it healthier. And that is the greatest victory, I believe,
that one can achieve in the markets.
Of course, all this is my opinion. No need
that others should agree. But if it helps you see life in a more enabling way,
I am happy.
Dr.Narayan.
From:
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx [mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On Behalf Of BobsKC
Sent: Saturday, February 23, 2008
11:49 PM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: [RT] Download Free
Elliott Wave Theorist (normally priced at $29)
The meaning of the words greed and fear and hope do
not change but
the basis for them does change. For instance. In 1929 men were
terrified of losing their jobs and their main hope was to have a job
they could keep for the rest of their working life. People purchased
what they could pay for out of pocket and buying things like home
appliances on credit was unheard of. You had what you could pay for
and if you couldn't pay for it, you couldn't afford it. As mentioned
earlier, the working class were mostly not in the markets and cared
little about them. There was a higher degree of honor among people
and by businesses. Success in life was measured by providing a roof
over your families' head, food to eat and clothes to wear. Multiple
autos, boats, vacation homes, the latest inventions and retirement
accounts were for the rich. Compare those times with today. Compare
the thinking of Americans then with the thinking of Americans
today. Compare the practices of people then and now. Compare the
honesty, honor and integrity of people then and now. Compare the
financial responsibility of people then and now. Compare waiting for
what you want until you can afford it with having to have it all and
have it now attitudes present today. People job jumping just to make
a few more dollars. Today is about today, yesteryear was about tomorrow.
Now, tell me that all those things above do not affect the stock
market. Tell me that the vastly different attitudes about life and
money do not affect what reaction people had then and have today to
the same situations .. the same news... the same circumstances. Add
in the fact that a large percentage of the working class are in
today's markets through mutual funds or even directly. Factor all of
these things into the mental perspective of the average investor then
and now and tell me you don't think it changes the meanings of the
words fear, greed and hope. Those words are totally redefined and so
are the results they bring about in the markets. Charts showing what
the investor class did 80 years have little to do with what people
will do today. Even if the circumstances are the same. That is why
someone like Ira uses his 35 years of experience to buffer, mitigate
and massage his tech work.
Bob
At 11:32 PM 2/22/2008, you wrote:
>Bob,
>
>In and thru all those changes that you spoke about from 1929 thru
>today, one thing that does not change is the human nature of greed
>and fear and hope and anxiety.
>All our actions are as a result of our thoughts that emerge from
>emotions created by desires at our intellect levels. This can never
>change whether we are trading stocks, bonds, commodities, mutual
>funds or ADRs......and it will ever remain thus.
>This is how the past repeats into the future.
>
>Dr.Narayan
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: RB <rhodes@xxxxxxxxxxxcom>
>Date: Saturday, February 23, 2008 11:40 am
>Subject: Re: [RT] Download Free Elliott Wave Theorist (normally
>priced at $29)
>To: realtraders@yahoogroups.com
>
> >
> > I would have to agree with most of this.
> > I also had the understanding, that the Elliott Wave Theorist over
> > all had a fair to good track record, when compared to offer
> > newsletters-gurus as far as their recomendations.
> > As far as the predictions. I would think theirs would be like
> > most. Not very usefull at all.
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: Ira
> > To: realtraders@yahoogroups.com
> > Sent: Friday, February 22, 2008 12:17 PM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] Download Free Elliott Wave Theorist (normally
> > priced at $29)
> >
> >
> >
> > In every profession there are people that get stuck in their own
> > belief system and can make what ever they see conform to what they
> > want it to look like. As for history not repeating itself, I will
> > have to disagree with you. All technical analysis is based upon
> > the fact that certain things continue to happen with a great
> > degree of consistence. That is what make technical analysis work.
> > The thing that gets in the way is the human factor. This is the
> > case in every failed enterprise as well as every success.
> >
> > Those who can understand what they are looking at and how to use
> > that knowledge will always succeed. Those that follow rotely are
> > doomed to fail at some point. It is the ability to apply the
> > knowledge with as little bias as possible that creates success.
> > That is one of the reasons that I preach, look at both moves up
> > and down all the time. What has to happen for prices to rise and
> > what has to happen for prices to fall? The problem with most
> > traders is that they only look in one direction and caught up in
> > their belief system and don't look at what will make their
> > decision wrong. They usually use financial pain as an exit level
> > rather than a price point that says they are wrong.
> >
> > I have used the same system for over 35 years and never had to
> > change it, adjust it or tweak it and it has worked successfully in
> > all kinds of markets and it still works today. So does history
> > repeat itself? All of the time. Minute by minute to year after
> > year.
> >
> > Just one man's opinion,
> > Ira
> > www.delta100.com
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: BobsKC
> > To: realtraders@yahoogroups.com
> > Sent: Friday, February 22, 2008 7:35 AM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] Download Free Elliott Wave Theorist
> > (normally priced at $29)
> >
> >
> > Just Prector .. He's been predicting doom all through out the
> > bull market we've been in including through nearly all of the tech
> > bubble which would have wiped out most people following his
> > advice. He now admits to under-estimating the length of wave C
> > but only after no one had any money left who had been believers.
> > His view is that even though the market makeup changes, people do
> > not change but even that is flawed because when he looks at the
> > conditions in 1929, the people in that market had an entirely
> > different geographical and financial makeup than today. There was
> > no one world market.. no world economy, no ADR's. Stocks were
> > being purchased for .10 on the dollar. I wasn't alive then but I
> > don't believe there were mutual funds. So, the players are vastly
> > different, the game is different and the rules are different but
> > he doggedly sticks to his theme that it's all the same and history
> > will repeat itself. A view that has been extremely costly to his
> > followers.
> >
> > Bob
> >
> > At 12:39 AM 2/22/2008, you wrote:
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > Does this mean you're not a Prector fan or not an Elliot
> > Wave fan?
> >
> > Just curious if there is a distinction, and if so, why?
> >
> > Thanks
> >
> >
> >
> > In a message dated 2/22/2008 12:03:38 A.M. Eastern Standard
> > Time, bobskc@xxxxxxxxxnet
writes:
> >
> >
> >
> > Prector is still around huh? Every time the market sinks
> > a bit, his name returns to the media so it's not really surprising
> > I guess. By the time he was right about the markets from the
> > '90's, his followers had to all be busted but I guess there is a
> > new crop now.
> >
> >
> > Bob
> >
> >
> > At 10:31 PM 2/21/2008, you wrote:
> >
> >
> >
> > Download Free Elliott Wave Theorist (normally priced at
> > $29)
> >
> > EIliott Wave International is giving away one of Bob
> > Prechter's most recent Elliott Wave Theorists. You can read his
> > publication free of charge. Single issues are normally priced at $29.
> >
> >
> > http://www.elliottwave.com/a.asp?url="">club/free-
> > theorist.aspx?code=aff&cn=6tgt
> >
> >
> > ----------------------------------------------------------
> > ---
> >
> > No virus found in this incoming message.
> >
> > Checked by AVG Free Edition.
> >
> > Version: 7.5.516 / Virus Database: 269.20.9/1291 -
> > Release Date: 2/21/2008 11:05 AM
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > ----------------------------------------------------------
> > -------
> > Delicious ideas to please the pickiest eaters. Watch the
> > video on AOL Living.
> >
> >
> >
> >
>
>
>
>Yahoo! Groups Links
>
>
>
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