Re: [RT] The Dollar, RealTraders Email List Archive

Hello Sergey,

Yes I am. Glad my book has proven helpful.

A completely new second edition will be available in 02-2008 titled The Evaluation and Optimization of Trading Strategies.

Regards,

Bob Pardo

From: realtraders@yahoogroups.com [mailto:realtraders@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Sergey
Sent: Thursday, November 08, 2007 5:30 PM
To: realtraders@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [RT] The Dollar

Hello, Robert

Are you the same Robert Pardo who has written the book "Design, testing and optimization of trading systems"?

I am asking as my group does a lot of backtesting of different models, and this book is our handbook.

Best regards,

Sergey

----- Original Message -----

From: Robert Pardo at Mindspring

To: realtraders@yahoogroups.com

Sent: Thursday, November 08, 2007 5:37 PM

Subject: RE: [RT] The Dollar

Hi Ben,

With all due respect, what source of information can you site for this seemingly ?definitive? view you have of the actions of the Chinese government.

I worked for Salomon Brothers in the early ?80s under John Meriwether and had the opportunity to develop some insight into what it really means to be ?plugged? in to government policy makers. They were ?plugged in.? The Fed would call Meriwether and Guttfriend (sp?) and sometimes Henry Kaufman into their offices to get a read from them on how policy decisions would ?play? on Wall Street ? before they announced them, as I understand how this all went down. And, as ?plugged in? as they were, they would never profess to know Fed and government policy definitively.

I can also tell you from repeated, firsthand experience that just because an investment or trading entity has a lot of resources does not necessarily mean that they really know what they are doing. The degree of incompetence in many ? and I certainly do not mean all by any means -- large financial institutions would probably shock most people.

So, how is it that you know Chinese government policy? What are your sources?

Regards,

Bob Pardo

From: realtraders@yahoogroups.com [mailto:realtraders@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of profitok@xxxxxxxxxxnet
Sent: Thursday, November 08, 2007 3:57 PM
To: realtraders@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [RT] The Dollar

Hello Tim

Nice to hear from you,

The Chinese 15 years ago ,, learned by mistake how to make money in currencies,

they decided then ,to have a monopoly on prices of specialty ORES and minerals, and metals

(nickel, kadmiume,titeniume etc)

they bought a majority of mines in Canada ,Australia, and Africa

once a year they transfer their sales (minus expenses) to the bank of china

and

realize, how the Canadian dollar is rising against the us dollar

and same for the Australian dollar

and in Singapore they make a market for 6 currency options

they even sell calls on their us bonds,

Ben
----- Original Message -----
From: Timothy Morge
Date: Thursday, November 8, 2007 12:19 pm
Subject: Re: [RT] The Dollar
To: realtraders@yahoogroups.com

> Ben:
>
> I agree they are not stupid. They were some of the
> finest traders in the world long before we were
> wearing anything but animal skins [we being Europeans
> that then came to America].
>
> That being said, they are a little like America in the
> expansion period of the 1920's. They are growing SO
> fast and have so few people compared to what they need
> to take advantage of all the wonderful profit
> potential sitting in their laps, they currently do not
> have the time, energy or people to do as surgical an
> allocation method as you described. They'd like
> to--trust me, I am constantly being asked to move my
> family because they want to build a very large new
> investment arm that would deal with nothing but market
> timing, investment timing and materials purchasing
> timing--but they are simply overwhelmed meeting the
> daily demands of keeping up with how fast eveything is
> growing and moving.
>
> That being said...They are NOT invested in the U.S. in
> a large way. Those days are over. They, along with the
> majority of pro U.S. Royals and several other ex major
> U.S. asset holders have been diversifying for some
> time. But the Chinese are not managing currency
> exposures for profits on a daily or weekly basis. Not
> yet. But they have lots of money. Lots.
>
> They're not stupid. They were just resting,
> waiting...and I believe it's safe to say they are
> awake now.
>
> Tim
> --- Ben wrote:
>
> > charles
> > they are FAR from being stupid
> > their goals are 2 fold
> > a: keep the buying power of their nation
> > b: make money
> > think of how much money they make daily buying low
> > and selling hi
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: Charles Meyer
> > To: realtraders@yahoogroups.com
> > Sent: Thursday, November 08, 2007 8:19 AM
> > Subject: Re: [RT] The Dollar
> >
> >
> > Frankly, I would be shocked it their plan were
> > this
> > simplistic.
> > You'd think they would be more sophisticated; but
> > then
> > again
> > they may be naieve about the inter-workings of
> > capitalism.
> > Don't know really.
> >
> > chas
> > -----
> >
> > On Wed, 7 Nov 2007 20:05:50 -0800 (PST)
> > Timothy Morge wrote:
> > > Well, I would say that it's an interesting
> > theory. But
> > > not what the officials are doing with their
> > country's
> > > reserves. It's just not so. I had a very nice
> > dinner
> > > with the Minister of Finance in July--I have had
> > the
> > > pleasure of working with him on a consulting
> > basis for
> > > more than 20 years as he has risen in the ranks.
> > >
> > > Thier mix is certainly not conttrolled anywhere
> > near
> > > that closely and if you are implying they have
> > 25
> > > percent of their currency reserves or exposure
> > in the
> > > Canadian dollar, I'm sorry. You're incorrect by
> > quite
> > > a bit.
> > >
> > > I'm not trying to be argumentative, Ben, but
> > there are
> > > too many ill-founded rumorsm out there and this
> > mix
> > > idea is just wrong. They are using a much
> > blunter mix
> > > than this. You are making them out to be JP
> > Morgan--it
> > > just ain't so.
> > >
> > > Tim
> > > --- Ben wrote:
> > >
> > >> Hello Ira
> > >>
> > >> this is EXECtely what china goverment is doing
> > >>
> > >> they have 25% in euro
> > >> 25% in yen
> > >> 25% in usd
> > >> and 25% in cd
> > >> every day they eqalize the amount
> > >> if euro up they sell euro above 25% and buy the
> > week
> > >> currency to make the 25%
> > >> Ben
> > >> ----- Original Message -----
> > >> From: Ira
> > >> To: realtraders@yahoogroups.com
> > >> Sent: Wednesday, November 07, 2007 3:16 PM
> > >> Subject: Re: [RT] The Dollar
> > >>
> > >>
> > >>
> > >> I have two targets below here. One at 74.50 and
> > a
> > >> long term target of 70.50. There is a rumor
> > that
> > >> China is moving a lot of its U.S. Dollar cash
> > >> reserves into Euros. This does not look good
> > for
> > >> the dollar if it is true. Who really knows what
> > the
> > >> Chinese government will do. There is one other
> > >> credit crises that hasn't been addressed out
> > side of
> > >> the lenders and that is the insurance
> > companies.
> > >> How many of them have put how much of your
> > premiums
> > >> into mortgage backed securities. Or just
> > mortgages
> > >> themselves. This will also impact the Dollar.
> > >> There is also a crises brewing with the NASCAR
> > Set.
> > >> How high will the price of beer go with the
> > >> increased cost of barley, hops and wheat?
> > Another
> > >> drain on the Christmas dollar. Maybe a six pack
> > >> gift will do.
> > >>
> > >> Ira
> > >> www.delta100.com
> > >> ----- Original Message -----
> > >> From: Jim White
> > >> To: realtraders@yahoogroups.com
> > >> Sent: Wednesday, November 07, 2007 11:35 AM
> > >> Subject: [RT] The Dollar
> > >>
> > >>
> > >>
> > >> We may be near a turn in the dollar decline.
> > >> This week is a Near Impulse week for the dollar
> > and
> > >> Friday is a Near Impulse day which could mark
> > the
> > >> low.
> > >> Jim White
> > >> Pivot Research & Trading Co.
> > >> PivotTrader.com
> > >>
> > >>
> > >>
> > >>
> > >>
> > >>
> > >
> >
> ----------------------------------------------------------
> > >>
> > >>
> > >> No virus found in this incoming message.
> > >> Checked by AVG Free Edition.
> > >> Version: 7.5.503 / Virus Database:
> > 269.15.24/1115
> > >> - Release Date: 11/7/2007 9:21 AM
> > >>
> > >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> -----------------------------------------------------------------
> -------------
> >
> >
> > No virus found in this incoming message.
> > Checked by AVG Free Edition.
> > Version: 7.5.503 / Virus Database: 269.15.25/1118
> > - Release Date: 11/8/2007 9:29 AM
> >
>
>