Re: RE: [RT] The Dollar, RealTraders Email List Archive

Ben

----- Original Message -----
From: Robert Pardo at Mindspring
Date: Thursday, November 8, 2007 6:40 pm
Subject: RE: [RT] The Dollar
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

> Hello Sergey,
>
>
>
> Yes I am. Glad my book has proven helpful.
>
>
>
> A completely new second edition will be available in 02-2008
> titled The
>
> Evaluation and Optimization of Trading Strategies.
>
>
>
> Regards,
>
>
>
> Bob Pardo
>
>
>
> From: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> [mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On
> Behalf Of Sergey
> Sent: Thursday, November 08, 2007 5:30 PM
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: [RT] The Dollar
>
>
>
> Hello, Robert
>
>
>
> Are you the same Robert Pardo who has written the book "Design,
> testing and
> optimization of trading systems"?
>
> I am asking as my group does a lot of backtesting of different
> models, and
> this book is our handbook.
>
>
>
> Best regards,
>
>
>
> Sergey
>
> ----- Original Message -----
>
> From: Robert Pardo at Mindspring
>
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
> Sent: Thursday, November 08, 2007 5:37 PM
>
> Subject: RE: [RT] The Dollar
>
>
>
> Hi Ben,
>
> With all due respect, what source of information can you site
> for this
> seemingly "definitive" view you have of the actions of the Chinese
> government.
>
> I worked for Salomon Brothers in the early '80s under John
> Meriwether and
> had the opportunity to develop some insight into what it really
> means to be
> "plugged" in to government policy makers. They were "plugged
> in." The Fed
> would call Meriwether and Guttfriend (sp?) and sometimes Henry
> Kaufman into
> their offices to get a read from them on how policy decisions
> would "play"
> on Wall Street - before they announced them, as I understand how
> this all
> went down. And, as "plugged in" as they were, they would never
> profess to
> know Fed and government policy definitively.
>
> I can also tell you from repeated, firsthand experience that
> just because
> an investment or trading entity has a lot of resources does not
> necessarilymean that they really know what they are doing. The
> degree of incompetence
> in many - and I certainly do not mean all by any means -- large
> financialinstitutions would probably shock most people.
>
> So, how is it that you know Chinese government policy? What are your
> sources?
>
> Regards,
>
> Bob Pardo
>
> From: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> [mailto:realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx] On
> Behalf Of profitok@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Sent: Thursday, November 08, 2007 3:57 PM
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: [RT] The Dollar
>
>
> Hello Tim
>
> Nice to hear from you,
>
> The Chinese 15 years ago ,, learned by mistake how to make
> money in
> currencies,
>
> they decided then ,to have a monopoly on prices of specialty
> ORES and
> minerals, and metals
>
> (nickel, kadmiume,titeniume etc)
>
> they bought a majority of mines in Canada ,Australia, and Africa
>
> once a year they transfer their sales (minus expenses) to the
> bank of
> china
>
> and
>
> realize, how the Canadian dollar is rising against the us dollar
>
> and same for the Australian dollar
>
> and in Singapore they make a market for 6 currency options
>
> they even sell calls on their us bonds,
>
> Ben
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Timothy Morge
> Date: Thursday, November 8, 2007 12:19 pm
> Subject: Re: [RT] The Dollar
> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
> > Ben:
> >
> > I agree they are not stupid. They were some of the
> > finest traders in the world long before we were
> > wearing anything but animal skins [we being Europeans
> > that then came to America].
> >
> > That being said, they are a little like America in the
> > expansion period of the 1920's. They are growing SO
> > fast and have so few people compared to what they need
> > to take advantage of all the wonderful profit
> > potential sitting in their laps, they currently do not
> > have the time, energy or people to do as surgical an
> > allocation method as you described. They'd like
> > to--trust me, I am constantly being asked to move my
> > family because they want to build a very large new
> > investment arm that would deal with nothing but market
> > timing, investment timing and materials purchasing
> > timing--but they are simply overwhelmed meeting the
> > daily demands of keeping up with how fast eveything is
> > growing and moving.
> >
> > That being said...They are NOT invested in the U.S. in
> > a large way. Those days are over. They, along with the
> > majority of pro U.S. Royals and several other ex major
> > U.S. asset holders have been diversifying for some
> > time. But the Chinese are not managing currency
> > exposures for profits on a daily or weekly basis. Not
> > yet. But they have lots of money. Lots.
> >
> > They're not stupid. They were just resting,
> > waiting...and I believe it's safe to say they are
> > awake now.
> >
> > Tim
> > --- Ben wrote:
> >
> > > charles
> > > they are FAR from being stupid
> > > their goals are 2 fold
> > > a: keep the buying power of their nation
> > > b: make money
> > > think of how much money they make daily buying low
> > > and selling hi
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: Charles Meyer
> > > To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > Sent: Thursday, November 08, 2007 8:19 AM
> > > Subject: Re: [RT] The Dollar
> > >
> > >
> > > Frankly, I would be shocked it their plan were
> > > this
> > > simplistic.
> > > You'd think they would be more sophisticated; but
> > > then
> > > again
> > > they may be naieve about the inter-workings of
> > > capitalism.
> > > Don't know really.
> > >
> > > chas
> > > -----
> > >
> > > On Wed, 7 Nov 2007 20:05:50 -0800 (PST)
> > > Timothy Morge wrote:
> > > > Well, I would say that it's an interesting
> > > theory. But
> > > > not what the officials are doing with their
> > > country's
> > > > reserves. It's just not so. I had a very nice
> > > dinner
> > > > with the Minister of Finance in July--I have had
> > > the
> > > > pleasure of working with him on a consulting
> > > basis for
> > > > more than 20 years as he has risen in the ranks.
> > > >
> > > > Thier mix is certainly not conttrolled anywhere
> > > near
> > > > that closely and if you are implying they have
> > > 25
> > > > percent of their currency reserves or exposure
> > > in the
> > > > Canadian dollar, I'm sorry. You're incorrect by
> > > quite
> > > > a bit.
> > > >
> > > > I'm not trying to be argumentative, Ben, but
> > > there are
> > > > too many ill-founded rumorsm out there and this
> > > mix
> > > > idea is just wrong. They are using a much
> > > blunter mix
> > > > than this. You are making them out to be JP
> > > Morgan--it
> > > > just ain't so.
> > > >
> > > > Tim
> > > > --- Ben wrote:
> > > >
> > > >> Hello Ira
> > > >>
> > > >> this is EXECtely what china goverment is doing
> > > >>
> > > >> they have 25% in euro
> > > >> 25% in yen
> > > >> 25% in usd
> > > >> and 25% in cd
> > > >> every day they eqalize the amount
> > > >> if euro up they sell euro above 25% and buy the
> > > week
> > > >> currency to make the 25%
> > > >> Ben
> > > >> ----- Original Message -----
> > > >> From: Ira
> > > >> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > >> Sent: Wednesday, November 07, 2007 3:16 PM
> > > >> Subject: Re: [RT] The Dollar
> > > >>
> > > >>
> > > >>
> > > >> I have two targets below here. One at 74.50 and
> > > a
> > > >> long term target of 70.50. There is a rumor
> > > that
> > > >> China is moving a lot of its U.S. Dollar cash
> > > >> reserves into Euros. This does not look good
> > > for
> > > >> the dollar if it is true. Who really knows what
> > > the
> > > >> Chinese government will do. There is one other
> > > >> credit crises that hasn't been addressed out
> > > side of
> > > >> the lenders and that is the insurance
> > > companies.
> > > >> How many of them have put how much of your
> > > premiums
> > > >> into mortgage backed securities. Or just
> > > mortgages
> > > >> themselves. This will also impact the Dollar.
> > > >> There is also a crises brewing with the NASCAR
> > > Set.
> > > >> How high will the price of beer go with the
> > > >> increased cost of barley, hops and wheat?
> > > Another
> > > >> drain on the Christmas dollar. Maybe a six pack
> > > >> gift will do.
> > > >>
> > > >> Ira
> > > >> www.delta100.com
> > > >> ----- Original Message -----
> > > >> From: Jim White
> > > >> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > >> Sent: Wednesday, November 07, 2007 11:35 AM
> > > >> Subject: [RT] The Dollar
> > > >>
> > > >>
> > > >>
> > > >> We may be near a turn in the dollar decline.
> > > >> This week is a Near Impulse week for the dollar
> > > and
> > > >> Friday is a Near Impulse day which could mark
> > > the
> > > >> low.
> > > >> Jim White
> > > >> Pivot Research & Trading Co.
> > > >> PivotTrader.com
> > > >>
> > > >>
> > > >>
> > > >>
> > > >>
> > > >>
> > > >
> > >
> > ----------------------------------------------------------
> > > >>
> > > >>
> > > >> No virus found in this incoming message.
> > > >> Checked by AVG Free Edition.
> > > >> Version: 7.5.503 / Virus Database:
> > > 269.15.24/1115
> > > >> - Release Date: 11/7/2007 9:21 AM
> > > >>
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > ---------------------------------------------------------------
> --
> > -------------
> > >
> > >
> > > No virus found in this incoming message.
> > > Checked by AVG Free Edition.
> > > Version: 7.5.503 / Virus Database: 269.15.25/1118
> > > - Release Date: 11/8/2007 9:29 AM
> > >
> >
> >
>
>
>
>