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Hi, Ron
 
I think the main problem here is the available price history to reveal the extra long cycles. Usually I work with daily and intraday data.
Regarding long term cycle, the longest history I have for indexes is a reconstruction of Dow starting from 1789 year, monthly data (after 1885 Dow, prior that the reconstruction). This is how it loks like ( I used the detrended oscillator with period 100 months):  
 
 
The spectrum analysis shows these strongest cycles inside these data:
 
 
 
What is interesting, I see 9 years cycle in many financial data. This is Juglar cycle. For example, it presents in wheat data for the last 750 years:
http://www.timingsolution.com/TS/Study/Wheat/  (see spectrum in the end of this article).
 
Re astrocycles, sometimes they work in a very interesting manner. Like this: http://www.timingsolution.com/TS/Uphistory/upgrade_27.doc
 
Best regards.
Sergey.
 
 
 
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Sunday, October 14, 2007 2:11 PM
Subject: [Bulk] Re: [RT] Re: Re: The Markets



Sergey,
 
Did you know the 120 year cycle is also a complete Vedic Astrological cycle?  These Vedic cycles are given significance by some astro traders.
 
Ron
 
----- Original Message -----
From: Sergey
Sent: Sunday, October 14, 2007 9:34 AM
Subject: [RT] Re: Re: The Markets



Hi, Ira
 
This is math nothing else. I simply analyzed the Dow from 1885 year, more than 120 yeas and calculated the Annual cycle using three independent intervals 1885-1925, 1925-1966,1966-2007 (these are black, blue and red curves below):
 
 
 
When all these curves point the same trend, we can assume that this motion is caused by Annual cycle.
 
Regarding DOW, it looks like it has more Annual cycle related movements in the fall and winter.
 
Best.
Sergey.
 
 
 
 
----- Original Message -----
From: Ira
Sent: Saturday, October 13, 2007 5:41 PM
Subject: [Bulk] Re: [RT] The Markets



Did it also show you the reason for that?  The reason has been that the market has seen major lows during that time period so the bounce off of those lows has been dramatic.
----- Original Message -----
From: Sergey
Sent: Saturday, October 13, 2007 9:59 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] The Markets



I did some research regarding seasonal cycle, it is here:
 
Also it may be interesting to see daily cycles for intraday. As an example, for DOW it looks:
 
 
 
 
Sergey.
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Saturday, October 13, 2007 12:49 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] The Markets



ira,
I fully agree with you.I am a seasonal pattern player.My work shows that from 2nd week of Oct to the 1st week of Nov, Dow has gone op 31 times in last 36 years.Odds are in bulls side.
Good Trading everybody
rashid

>From: Ira <mr.ira@xxxxxxxxxxnet>
>Date: 2007/10/13 Sat AM 11:09:48 CDT
>To: <Undisclosed-Recipient:;@unspecified-domain>
>Subject: [RT] The Markets

>
>I have been reading in various groups about a bear market, key reversal days and tops in the various markets. As of right now none of the indexes have given a sell signal with the system that I use. There may be a reversal that could be triggered in the coming week or so, but nothing that says that a major move down is underway or about to begin. If you feel that the bear is just around the corner, then keep your stops tight or buy protective puts. I have the indexes as being over extended at this time. I have some downside pressure being applied, but it has had little effect upon price at this time. I have covered the Indexes, gold, interest rates and crude oil in the comments section of www.delta100.com if you want further insight into what I am thinking at this time. Have a great week end. Ira
>www.delta100.com

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