Don:
I have a very long term target price of
122-07. This is based upon a very long cycle. Using the long term
chart there is currently upside pressure on the bonds with a price
objective of 114. I doubt that it will get there on this move
up. I would suspect that there might be another leg down to 107-25
support. that is using the long term chart alone. A move down into
this are will not void the up move.
Using the daily chart I had 109-04 as a target
price for the down move and that acts as support. right now I have
111-25 as resistance and 112-03 as a target. Upside pressure is
over extended and I would expect some downward movement from this area.
If price hits 110-28 from the current high the first support would be 109-31
with a target price of 109-05.
Target prices only have a 60% probability.
The first price objective has an 80% probability.
If you have a position on now I would look for
support at 111-06 then 110-28 with a target price of 110-19 and to
restart the up move price would have to go through 111-22.
Hope that this helps a little
Ira
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Wednesday, February 21, 2007 3:54
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] us bonds
Ira,
Do you have any targets that reach up to the
120 area later this year?
Reason I ask is recently on Carl's blog he
posted:
February 20, 2007
"As you can see both markets put in two
consecutive daily closes above what I thought would be strong resistance
(111-04). I believe this means that the late January lows will hold and that
the trend turned up from there. I am very bullish on the bond market, and
especially on maturities 10 years and longer. I think TLT is headed for
94-95. I think the bond futures are headed for 120."
Since February 1 he had been looking for the
bonds to base in the area of the 1-26-07 low.
FYI, I have found his longer term
forecasts to be of great value when the bonds are concerned. If he is
correct rates will ease substantially from on into rest of the
year?
Don Ewers
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Thursday, February 15, 2007
1:41 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] us bonds
Ben:
Here are the numbers I have off of the
daiily chart. I have upside pressure being applied. Price objective
an trouble at 111-06 and then 111-28 as a target price for a short cycle.
after that 112-08, 113-01 and a target price for the longer cycle at
114-10. Today is only day two, so your time projection seems about
right. YOu made it in earlier the I would have. My entry was
about 109-26. Right now about an 80% probability of getting to
111-28.
Our numbers are similar using different
systems. Our trading approach is different. I never add to a
position. I always liquidate into strength. Exit at price
objectives or price targets and then re-enter as price
dictates.
Whatever works is fine. Have a good
expiration Friday.
Ira
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Wednesday, February 14, 2007
6:26 PM
Subject: [RT] us bonds
attach is the chart of the continues
contract
the 4 lines on top is the 4 levels for the
perfect stop loss
the bottom chart shows the buy
the long term give for bonds a t 109 09
for this move to continue you must clear
next at 111 11
if not there on closing bases in 1-4
buss days then this may be a fake up
i would be 50% long at a close above
111 11 and add more on close above 112 01
a close above 112 20 will make
me fell like 114-115
Ben
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