|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Don:
I have a very long term target price of 122-07. This is based upon a very long cycle. Using the long term chart there is currently upside pressure on the bonds with a price objective of 114. I doubt that it will get there on this move up. I would suspect that there might be another leg down to 107-25 support. that is using the long term chart alone. A move down into this are will not void the up move.
Using the daily chart I had 109-04 as a target price for the down move and that acts as support. right now I have 111-25 as resistance and 112-03 as a target. Upside pressure is over extended and I would expect some downward movement from this area. If price hits 110-28 from the current high the first support would be 109-31 with a target price of 109-05.
Target prices only have a 60% probability. The first price objective has an 80% probability.
If you have a position on now I would look for support at 111-06 then 110-28 with a target price of 110-19 and to restart the up move price would have to go through 111-22.
Hope that this helps a little
Ira
www.thetradersguide.net
----- Original Message -----
From: Don Ewers
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Wednesday, February 21, 2007 3:54 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] us bonds
Ira,
Do you have any targets that reach up to the 120 area later this year?
Reason I ask is recently on Carl's blog he posted:
February 20, 2007
"As you can see both markets put in two consecutive daily closes above what I thought would be strong resistance (111-04). I believe this means that the late January lows will hold and that the trend turned up from there. I am very bullish on the bond market, and especially on maturities 10 years and longer. I think TLT is headed for 94-95. I think the bond futures are headed for 120."
Since February 1 he had been looking for the bonds to base in the area of the 1-26-07 low.
FYI, I have found his longer term forecasts to be of great value when the bonds are concerned. If he is correct rates will ease substantially from on into rest of the year?
Don Ewers
----- Original Message -----
From: Ira
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Thursday, February 15, 2007 1:41 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] us bonds
Ben:
Here are the numbers I have off of the daiily chart. I have upside pressure being applied. Price objective an trouble at 111-06 and then 111-28 as a target price for a short cycle. after that 112-08, 113-01 and a target price for the longer cycle at 114-10. Today is only day two, so your time projection seems about right. YOu made it in earlier the I would have. My entry was about 109-26. Right now about an 80% probability of getting to 111-28.
Our numbers are similar using different systems. Our trading approach is different. I never add to a position. I always liquidate into strength. Exit at price objectives or price targets and then re-enter as price dictates.
Whatever works is fine. Have a good expiration Friday.
Ira
www.thetradersguide.net
----- Original Message -----
From: Ben
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ; ntt-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ; e-mini_traders_anon@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx ; astrofin@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Wednesday, February 14, 2007 6:26 PM
Subject: [RT] us bonds
attach is the chart of the continues contract
the 4 lines on top is the 4 levels for the perfect stop loss
the bottom chart shows the buy the long term give for bonds a t 109 09
for this move to continue you must clear next at 111 11
if not there on closing bases in 1-4 buss days then this may be a fake up
i would be 50% long at a close above 111 11 and add more on close above 112 01
a close above 112 20 will make me fell like 114-115
Ben
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
No virus found in this incoming message.
Checked by AVG Free Edition.
Version: 7.1.411 / Virus Database: 268.17.39/686 - Release Date: 2/14/2007
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
No virus found in this outgoing message.
Checked by AVG Free Edition.
Version: 7.1.412 / Virus Database: 268.18.3/693 - Release Date: 2/19/2007
|