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Bob,
My 2 cents . . . we are in the very late stages of this market rise from
October 2002. Check out the attached four charts where I am seeing terminal
wolf wave patterns.
(For those not familiar with the wolf wave (WW) pattern the 1st gif explains
it. I have found the pattern to be extremely reliable).
1. The weekly 30-yr bond yield where the WW pattern is well underway
targeting higher long term interest rates to come (not particularly good for
real estate or the stock market traditionally)?
2. The SPX (WW complete, but can go higher?). Also an Elliott Waves pattern
that is complete and bumping up to the lower target range for Wave 5.
3. WW yet to be completed on the DJI which would require the DJI to get up
to the 11200-11300 range or above, before it's potential reversal. Note the
target line area on it.
One should also note the massive bearish divergence of the 5/35 oscillator
on the SPX and DJI charts (at the bottom), which is a way to measure the
markets strength. Major divergence there. I started my liquidation at the
early January rally and plan to be all out by March 20 or earlier if we
spike up to Carl Futia's 1350 area.
This is not the sign of a healthy market IMHO.
Don Ewers
PS-Sorry about all the charts but as they say a picture is worth a thousand
words.
----- Original Message -----
From: "BobsKC" <bobskc@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Saturday, March 04, 2006 9:42 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] mkt outlook
Why do so many people on RT think we are due for a long term down turn? I
know it has to
be at least one technical reason but what fundamental reason is there to
believe that? The
blue chips have an average PE of 15 .. earnings are still growing at a
healthy rate and we
have little inflation. The country is fully employed and oil has at least
stabilized. Do we put
our money on some chart marks or bollinger bands or elliot waves or on
facts? My take on
the equity markets are that they will continue to climb hesitantly up the
"wall of worry" with
slips and stumbles along the way but belief in a long term down trend will
have to show up
on my "facts of the economy" list before I can join that camp.
Bob
At 08:22 AM 3/4/2006 -0500, you wrote:
> You are correct. Lets at least wait untill he is proven wrong or right,
>before we make comments on it. If we don't make a new high over the next
>few weeks. He is correct. If we do make new highs. He is wrong.
>My vote is for new highs after this probably very small correction.
> I will say that he worded it a little supicous, but it may have need a
>mistake.
> When someone says the top is in but gives no time frame it does make it
>seem like there is no way for them to be wrong.
> Does he mean the top for this week? The top for this month?
> Or as it seems that he said. The top is in. Meaning the bull is over
with
>a bear for years.
> Hard to know and understand when someone makes quick statements with no
>explainations.
> But overall Ben seems to be a good guy and helps a lot with his posts.
>
>----- Original Message -----
>From: "Dan Harels" <harelsdb@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Sent: Saturday, March 04, 2006 1:19 AM
>Subject: Re: [RT] mkt outlook
>
>
> > Bob,
> >
> > There are many bright people on this forum and ridicule, no matter how
> > subtle or "clever", does not encourage dialog.
> >
> > Dan
> >
> >
> >>From: "Bob" <BHEISLER@xxxxxxxxx>
> >>Reply-To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >>To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> >>Subject: Re: [RT] mkt outlook
> >>Date: Fri, 3 Mar 2006 18:38:18 -0600
> >>
> >>How could it have been wrong?
> >> ----- Original Message -----
> >> From: Ron Cernokus
> >> To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> >> Sent: Friday, March 03, 2006 4:53 PM
> >> Subject: Re: [RT] mkt outlook
> >>
> >>
> >> Here is Ben's call from last Tuesday.
> >>
> >> S
> >>
> >>
> >> volume still points to 1300-1310 on sp500,
> >> that should be accomplished in 2-4 days,
> >> if not ,all bets are off ,and the top is in,
> >> Ben
> >>
> >>
> >> SPONSORED LINKS Business finance uk Business finance course
Business
> >>finance online course
> >> Business finance class Small business finance Business
finance
> >>schools
> >>
> >>
> >>------------------------------------------------------------------------
> ------
> >> YAHOO! GROUPS LINKS
> >>
> >> a.. Visit your group "realtraders" on the web.
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> >>
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> >>Service.
> >>
> >>
> >>------------------------------------------------------------------------
> ------
> >>
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > Yahoo! Groups Links
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
>
>
>
>
>
>Yahoo! Groups Links
>
>
>
>
Yahoo! Groups Links
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Attachment:
WolfWave.gif
Description: GIF image
Attachment:
TYXweek030306.gif
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Attachment:
SPXweek030306.gif
Description: GIF image
Attachment:
DJIweekly030306.gif
Description: GIF image
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