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Jan,
That's a very beautiful chart. Extremely effect in
this volatility.
Ron
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Thursday, October 20, 2005 2:57
PM
Subject: Re: [RT] My impresson is that
many had a bad day
As they say: use whatever works for you, however, the
recent mkt forecasts which included some great an some not so great calls and
the discussion which followed yesterday's mkt gave me something to think
about.
Having watched Median Line's pitchforks which often work, but
often don't, especially if you draw without hindsight advantage, or Elliott or
Hurst or Wolfe, all of them trying to forecast what the mkt will do, but
require that you make the right assumptions or inputs or you start drawing
from the right point, etc. - i saw a great advantage of having a good, proven
system which you follow without trying to forecast. And that despite some past
postings here which gave system trading bad rap.
I normally trade EC,
but yesterday being in Barcelona and having come home to late for it, I traded
ES. The attached chart shows all system trades - I have additional rules which
would eliminate the trade 11:47 -12:17. White arrows are exit signals, but I
also exit on double tops/bottoms combined with yellow bars, yellow band is 60
period MovAvg band and green lines are Donchian Chnl lines. Other lines are
also Donch Chnnl lines with higher inputs - 20, 40, 60. The system is based on
mkt bouncing from chnnl lines or, countertrend, on double
divergencies
combined with very overbought/oversold
condition.
System Trades:
8:40-8:43 -125pts, 8:55-9:12 +200,
9:14-9:31 -100, 9:31-9:45 +375, 10:02-10:30 +275, 10:31-10:45 -150,
11:01-11:43 +325, 11:47-12:17 -300 (not taken), 12:17-12:27 -125, 12:32-13:02
+175, 13:01 - not taken, very strong mkt, 13:29-15:14 +1225 ( stayed in trade
with lower Donchian Chnnl green line confining the mkt).
This is not to
bragg, but in defense of system trading.
My webmail doesn't accept more
than 1 attachment, so I'm sending the 2nd chart by separate mail.
Jan
Philipp
-----Original
Message-----
From: Rakesh Sahgal <rakeshsahgal@xxxxxxxxx>
Sent:
Oct 19, 2005 10:51 PM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: [RT]
My impresson is that many had a bad day
Hi,
Was it really all
that bad? There were clear
indications for anyone who CARED to look CLOSELY
that
a low will be put in place for a move to 1200(move
indicated by
some VERY KNOWLEDGEABLE people here).
Just look at the evidence:
1.
In the chart attached you will see that price
tanked on 10/18 courtesy of
the black medianline. This
median line has caused price to halt in it's
track on
3 occasions i.e. 9/22,10/3 and finally on 10/13.
The
reliability of depending on this medianline was hence
fairly high,
subject to other safeguards that you may
be using.This chart was first
posted by me on 9/27
with the very same medianline.Just imagine
the
accuracy of people who are proficient with the
technique using
intra-day data would have achieved.
Personally for me MedianLines have been
one of the
most worthwhile things I have learned and I cannot
thank Tim
Morge enough for this.
2. Once the medianline in question had been paid
due
respect then the lower bollinger of shorter period
bollinger drawn
on the chart was pierced. This is the
bit thats interesting and which I am
not able to
understand completely and hence unable to explain.
When
price pierces a lower bollinger band and a lower
bollinger band of a longer
length is below the shorter
period lower bollinger, QUITE OFTEN this acts
as a low
being put in place.
3. Look at the relationship between the
stochastics of
different lengths(same as the bollingers used). This
time
around it was positive. Shorter period Stoch
above those of longer periods.
It was the reverse on
9/27.
All of the above observations are based
on EOD data.
Leave alone all of what I have written above and
just
focus on the Bline method/system that Judy aka Buffy
uses. That
gave CLEAR indications on an EOD basis that
things were turning, on an
intra day basis one of the
big days for sure.
As to this being a
prelude to a trend change, that is
not indicated as yet by the chart. Most
probably we
will end up seeing the 1150 range as has been
indicated on
the forum(not by me)after a visit to the
1200-1205 range.
Regards
Rakesh
--- Deosaran Bisnath
<deobisnath@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> Just a few observations, all
of us have bad days,
> and good days.
> Am simply stating my take
on the disillusioned mood
> of a few traders
> I know, and a few
trading sites. Daytraders may have
> escaped unscathed, I
> barely
made it into positive zone, mainly because I
> was not a believer for
most
> of the day, even though the market was warning us in
> no
uncertain manner. But,
> when NASDAQ futures relaunched above 1560, I
was
> convinced this was headed much
> higher. Huge amounts
of stops were hit, new shorts
> entered, all the way up,
>
especially the rally from 1182 to close. Massive
> daily candle, a KEY
reversal
> day, is it? Pre-Option Expiration Wednesdays are
>
usually wildly volatile, but
> this one was about the most volatile for
some time.
>
> As usual, it was the big guys who initiated
this
> move and they were the big
> winners.
>
>
>
>
>
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