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As they say: use whatever works for you, however, the recent mkt forecasts which included some great an some not so great calls and the discussion which followed yesterday's mkt gave me something to think about.
Having watched Median Line's pitchforks which often work, but often don't, especially if you draw without hindsight advantage, or Elliott or Hurst or Wolfe, all of them trying to forecast what the mkt will do, but require that you make the right assumptions or inputs or you start drawing from the right point, etc. - i saw a great advantage of having a good, proven system which you follow without trying to forecast. And that despite some past postings here which gave system trading bad rap.
I normally trade EC, but yesterday being in Barcelona and having come home to late for it, I traded ES. The attached chart shows all system trades - I have additional rules which would eliminate the trade 11:47 -12:17. White arrows are exit signals, but I also exit on double tops/bottoms combined with yellow bars, yellow band is 60 period MovAvg band and green lines are Donchian Chnl lines. Other lines are also Donch Chnnl lines with higher inputs - 20, 40, 60. The system is based on mkt bouncing from chnnl lines or, countertrend, on double divergencies
combined with very overbought/oversold condition.
System Trades:
8:40-8:43 -125pts, 8:55-9:12 +200, 9:14-9:31 -100, 9:31-9:45 +375, 10:02-10:30 +275, 10:31-10:45 -150, 11:01-11:43 +325, 11:47-12:17 -300 (not taken), 12:17-12:27 -125, 12:32-13:02 +175, 13:01 - not taken, very strong mkt, 13:29-15:14 +1225 ( stayed in trade with lower Donchian Chnnl green line confining the mkt).
This is not to bragg, but in defense of system trading.
My webmail doesn't accept more than 1 attachment, so I'm sending the 2nd chart by separate mail.
Jan Philipp
-----Original Message-----
From: Rakesh Sahgal <rakeshsahgal@xxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Oct 19, 2005 10:51 PM
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: [RT] My impresson is that many had a bad day
Hi,
Was it really all that bad? There were clear
indications for anyone who CARED to look CLOSELY that
a low will be put in place for a move to 1200(move
indicated by some VERY KNOWLEDGEABLE people here).
Just look at the evidence:
1. In the chart attached you will see that price
tanked on 10/18 courtesy of the black medianline. This
median line has caused price to halt in it's track on
3 occasions i.e. 9/22,10/3 and finally on 10/13. The
reliability of depending on this medianline was hence
fairly high, subject to other safeguards that you may
be using.This chart was first posted by me on 9/27
with the very same medianline.Just imagine the
accuracy of people who are proficient with the
technique using intra-day data would have achieved.
Personally for me MedianLines have been one of the
most worthwhile things I have learned and I cannot
thank Tim Morge enough for this.
2. Once the medianline in question had been paid due
respect then the lower bollinger of shorter period
bollinger drawn on the chart was pierced. This is the
bit thats interesting and which I am not able to
understand completely and hence unable to explain.
When price pierces a lower bollinger band and a lower
bollinger band of a longer length is below the shorter
period lower bollinger, QUITE OFTEN this acts as a low
being put in place.
3. Look at the relationship between the stochastics of
different lengths(same as the bollingers used). This
time around it was positive. Shorter period Stoch
above those of longer periods. It was the reverse on
9/27.
All of the above observations are based on EOD data.
Leave alone all of what I have written above and just
focus on the Bline method/system that Judy aka Buffy
uses. That gave CLEAR indications on an EOD basis that
things were turning, on an intra day basis one of the
big days for sure.
As to this being a prelude to a trend change, that is
not indicated as yet by the chart. Most probably we
will end up seeing the 1150 range as has been
indicated on the forum(not by me)after a visit to the
1200-1205 range.
Regards
Rakesh
--- Deosaran Bisnath <deobisnath@xxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> Just a few observations, all of us have bad days,
> and good days.
> Am simply stating my take on the disillusioned mood
> of a few traders
> I know, and a few trading sites. Daytraders may have
> escaped unscathed, I
> barely made it into positive zone, mainly because I
> was not a believer for most
> of the day, even though the market was warning us in
> no uncertain manner. But,
> when NASDAQ futures relaunched above 1560, I was
> convinced this was headed much
> higher. Huge amounts of stops were hit, new shorts
> entered, all the way up,
> especially the rally from 1182 to close. Massive
> daily candle, a KEY reversal
> day, is it? Pre-Option Expiration Wednesdays are
> usually wildly volatile, but
> this one was about the most volatile for some time.
>
> As usual, it was the big guys who initiated this
> move and they were the big
> winners.
>
>
>
>
>
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