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Ben,
115-04 has been a target of Carl's from early in the week of July 3rd. The
bottom at 115-11 on Monday July 19 and subsequent rally caused him to
believe prices would not reach his target. As it turned out the "China
news" caused the bonds to sell off to 114-29 late on July 21, 7 tics below
his target.
Here was his post after the pit close Thursday July 21.
"The bonds dropped a bit below my original 115-04 target and the notes got
within 1/2 a tick of the original 111-00 target.
Some of you may wonder if I regret being early on the long side a couple of
days ago and not waiting for these targets to be reached. I often tell
people that it is far better to be a little early that a little late when
trying to catch a big move like the one I think lies just ahead in the bond
market. When you are late it is much harder to take a position, especially
if the market doesn't reach your proposed entry level in the first place.
In any case I expect the bonds to hold the bottom of the box at 115-04 and
the notes to hold the 1/2 point of the box at 110-30. In a couple of weeks I
think we will look back on today's action and see it as a successful test
that underlines the market's underlying bullish potential."
posted by Carl Futia at 2:31 PM
>From this low he is looking for bonds to rally ultimately to the 121 to 123
range. "If " correct your conservative money should do quite well I would
think :-)
By the way he is no longer looking for 1250 by the end of the year, he
raised that to 1350 (with an outside chance at 1417 as I recall). That would
say until then to be a buyer of all dips once they have run their course?
Regards,
Don Ewers
----- Original Message -----
From: "Ben" <profitok@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Saturday, July 23, 2005 2:40 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] us bonds
I hope it hold
as I still have conservative money in bonds
----- Original Message -----
From: "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Saturday, July 23, 2005 1:27 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] us bonds
> Ben,
> Not under, but did get to the bottom of it :-)
> Regards
> Don Ewers
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Ben" <profitok@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Thursday, July 21, 2005 9:36 PM
> Subject: Fw: [RT] us bonds
>
>
> We are now under that mob
> nice evening
> Ben
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Don Ewers" <dbewers@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Tuesday, July 19, 2005 10:37 PM
> Subject: Re: [RT] us bonds
>
>
>> Ben,
>> Incidentally AGET software's MOB price target & time, (which is not
> perfect)
>> came in here, coupled with a perfect ABC swing target of 115-13, and AGET
>> would also look for a low in here as well as a EW wave 4). Bottomline,
>> one
>> would say some decent confluence at the bond lows?
>> Don Ewers
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> Yahoo! Groups Links
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>
>
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