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stocks are likely to continue chopping higher - or at least hang
around the highs - into the first week or so of the new year.
at that point a solid 4-5% correction off the top should send
the averages lower into late Feb. for a bottom, which would alleviate
the sentiment readings marginally and allow for higher highs into
Springtime
---- Original message ----
>Date: Tue, 21 Dec 2004 05:50:45 -0700
>From: "Mr. Kevin B. Bantz" <kevinbantz@xxxxxxx>
>Subject: [RT] Re: [Longwaves Forum]Re: Everbody Thinks Stocks Are Going
Up.
>To: longwaves@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>Cc: BS_Chart_Chat@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>
>
> http://www.kevinbantz.com
>
>
>On Dec 20, 2004, at 9:51 AM, peter richardson wrote:
>
>> Measures of investment advisory sentiment and of trader advisory
>> sentiment are both showing very high readings of bulls.
>>
>> Most are betting as follows:
>>
>> 1. Santa Claus rally;
>> 2. January effect rallies;
>> 3. Belief in the seasonality factor -- Stocks should be bought starting
>> in November and in through January with April 30 being the time
>> to have lightened positions. This has worked well most of the time
>> for years.
>>
>> Some are also betting on the decennial pattern, which shows that year
>> 5 of each decade is a good one. This has worked perfectly for over a
>> hundred years.
>>
>> All the big money players and sophisticated traders are well aware of
>> the
>> sentiment readings and know that there are "too many bulls". If you
>> meta-analyze, you soon see that all the signicant players know that
>> all the
>> other players know about the sentiment readings as well. And so it
>> may be all will stay on board until there are divergences in volume,
>> breadth and momentum that breed varying degrees of caution.
>>
>> Put / call ratios have not been so aggressive as advisory sentiment.
>
>Didn't market breath peak in 1998?
>Greenspan's exuberance speech was in 1996.
>It may take until the year ending in "7" to get another scare.
>
>The National debt is now being deflated with inflated dollars at rates
>near 40 year lows, some crisis.
>
>My biggest concern is the 18.2 real estate cycle but since folks worked
>so hard to
>get that home they won't be jumping ship so soon. Only the flippers
>should take the plunge.
>My guess is that those third mortgage types didn't put their home
>appreciation into the market like they
>did in Japan.
>
>My 2004 outlook was using history from other years ending in "4". And
>ended up 11/12ths correct.
>There is soooooo much money out there that getting a 20% return next
>year shouldn't be a problem,
>Though I am putting an asterisk on 2005 and planned it to resemble
>1990's action but won't count out another 1992.
>
>Bantz, how about a 20% range....
>>
>> http://www.kevinbantz.com
>>
>> http://www.kevinbantz.com
>
>> http://www.kevinbantz.com
>
>
>
>
>
>Yahoo! Groups Links
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
Jim Curry
Market Turns
jcurry@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
www.cycle-wave.com
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