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On Dec 20, 2004, at 9:51 AM, peter richardson wrote:
> Measures of investment advisory sentiment and of trader advisory
> sentiment are both showing very high readings of bulls.
>
> Most are betting as follows:
>
> 1. Santa Claus rally;
> 2. January effect rallies;
> 3. Belief in the seasonality factor -- Stocks should be bought starting
> in November and in through January with April 30 being the time
> to have lightened positions. This has worked well most of the time
> for years.
>
> Some are also betting on the decennial pattern, which shows that year
> 5 of each decade is a good one. This has worked perfectly for over a
> hundred years.
>
> All the big money players and sophisticated traders are well aware of
> the
> sentiment readings and know that there are "too many bulls". If you
> meta-analyze, you soon see that all the signicant players know that
> all the
> other players know about the sentiment readings as well. And so it
> may be all will stay on board until there are divergences in volume,
> breadth and momentum that breed varying degrees of caution.
>
> Put / call ratios have not been so aggressive as advisory sentiment.
Didn't market breath peak in 1998?
Greenspan's exuberance speech was in 1996.
It may take until the year ending in "7" to get another scare.
The National debt is now being deflated with inflated dollars at rates
near 40 year lows, some crisis.
My biggest concern is the 18.2 real estate cycle but since folks worked
so hard to
get that home they won't be jumping ship so soon. Only the flippers
should take the plunge.
My guess is that those third mortgage types didn't put their home
appreciation into the market like they
did in Japan.
My 2004 outlook was using history from other years ending in "4". And
ended up 11/12ths correct.
There is soooooo much money out there that getting a 20% return next
year shouldn't be a problem,
Though I am putting an asterisk on 2005 and planned it to resemble
1990's action but won't count out another 1992.
Bantz, how about a 20% range....
>
> http://www.kevinbantz.com
>
> http://www.kevinbantz.com
> http://www.kevinbantz.com
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