a significant number of people support
Bush because of wanting continuity in the war against terrorism, but an
increasingly greater amount feel that the administration lied about its
rationale to go to war against Iraq - i.e. WMDs and therefore they want a
change. A vote for Kerry is a protest vote but at the same time many are
uncomfortable with the alternative choice: he has a poor track record on
defense, he is indecisive, he wants to raise taxes.... As to the Vietnam war
and period records, I think most voters want to forget the past
and focus more on the future. Kerry went to Vietnam to try to win (tried
a little too hard maybe) metals for valour that he may parlay into a
political career like his hero, JFK. And Bush (the younger) obviously
went into the National Guard to avoid combat and probably ran for president to
win his "daddy's" approval more than anything else. I think the race
will be very close as it was in 2000 in terms of the popular vote but given
the electoral college system of electing a president it looks to me (without
looking at the "stars") that Bush will squeak by with a victory. He has
let Kerry back in this horse race with his poor performance in the first
presidential debate but most voters will cast their lot based on their pocket
books. Bush has two important dynamics going for him: 1) there are a lot
of people who dont want their taxes to go up again and 2) investors
are watching the stock market which is showing "relative
strength" during this seasonally weak period ( curious timing courtesy of
the PPT ).
(On a follow up thought to the timing,
next week represents the average time for the October lows and if the
administration can engineer a healthy drop in crude oil starting in the next
several trading days then we can see this market propel to new highs for the
advance. Ironically a TA just before the election may favor Bush as well
for the continuity reasons mentioned earlier.)....Bottom line: Bush by a
pube.