a significant number of people support Bush
because of wanting continuity in the war against terrorism, but an increasingly
greater amount feel that the administration lied about its rationale to go to
war against Iraq - i.e. WMDs and therefore they want a change. A vote for
Kerry is a protest vote but at the same time many are uncomfortable with the
alternative choice: he has a poor track record on defense, he is indecisive, he
wants to raise taxes.... As to the Vietnam war and period records, I
think most voters want to forget the past and focus more on the
future. Kerry went to Vietnam to try to win (tried a little too
hard maybe) metals for valour that he may parlay into a political career
like his hero, JFK. And Bush (the younger) obviously went into the
National Guard to avoid combat and probably ran for president to win his
"daddy's" approval more than anything else. I think the race will be very
close as it was in 2000 in terms of the popular vote but given the electoral
college system of electing a president it looks to me (without looking at the
"stars") that Bush will squeak by with a victory. He has let Kerry back in
this horse race with his poor performance in the first presidential debate but
most voters will cast their lot based on their pocket books. Bush has two
important dynamics going for him: 1) there are a lot of people who dont want
their taxes to go up again and 2) investors are watching
the stock market which is showing "relative strength" during this
seasonally weak period ( curious timing courtesy of the PPT
).
(On a follow up thought to the timing, next
week represents the average time for the October lows and if the administration
can engineer a healthy drop in crude oil starting in the next several trading
days then we can see this market propel to new highs for the advance.
Ironically a TA just before the election may favor Bush as well for the
continuity reasons mentioned earlier.)....Bottom line: Bush by a
pube.