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I agree with this post almost completely. I do expect a move up in
equities soon as the markets are trying to establish a bottom right
now. After the election, higher interest rates, corporate reports
that will be hard pressed to follow through on large percentage gains
recently released and a looming run for the presidency by Hillary Clinton
will all be negatives for the markets with few to any positive factors to
drive it .... With each passing month/year as the markets
contemplate a Hillary presidential run and the probability of her
success, markets will shudder and contract. (The last poll I saw
had 70% of U.S. women saying they would vote for her simply because it's
time to have a woman as president and if you throw in the liberals,
minorities and die hard democrats, it's a given).
Thanks for your insight Earl,
Bob
At 08:47 AM 5/22/2004 -0600, you wrote:
Yes,
the monthly CRB chart shows an up-trend which is intact. However, the
pullback is occurring across a wide range of commodities, especially
industrial. A look at global economic fundamentals argues for a larger
than "modest" retracement. Ultimately, the course of the CRB
will be determined by a) the degree to which the Chinese economy slows
and b) the degree to which the US economy reacts to the decline in all
forms of fiscal stimulus. Generally, I expect:
a) lower CRB into year-end
b) higher $US into year-end followed by
resumption of decline
c) higher interest rates into year-end
followed by reversal into declining rates
d) sideways to lower trending equities
into year-end followed by major decline into 2006
In short, I expect a market climate
which is going to be very difficult for investors but interesting for
quick-footed traders.
Earl
----- Original Message -----
From: profitok
To:
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Friday, May 21, 2004 6:19 PM
Subject: Re: [RT] NW 5/19 Update
very true
this 5% down in crb is just temporary pull back
the trend is still up
Ben
----- Original Message -----
From: Norman Winski
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Friday, May 21, 2004 2:52 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] NW 5/19 Update
----- Original Message -----
From: profitok
To: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Friday, May 21, 2004 1:35 AM
Subject: Re: [RT] NW 5/19 Update
Hello
I bought long term calls on gold and silver
crb is not correctly forecast price inflation
gas is already $3 a gallon!!
my food bill in 1 year is up 57%
my health cost 27%
Ben,
CRB rose 58% from Oct. 2001 to March 2004. CRB has dropped 5% March 04 to present.
Regards,
Norman
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