Re: [RT] NW 5/19 Update

["EarlA" <earl.a@xxxxxxxxxx>]

Yes, the monthly CRB chart shows an 
up-trend which is intact. However, the pullback is occurring across a wide range 
of commodities, especially industrial. A look at global economic fundamentals 
argues for a larger than "modest" retracement. Ultimately, the course of the CRB 
will be determined by a) the degree to which the Chinese economy slows and b) 
the degree to which the US economy reacts to the decline in all forms of fiscal 
stimulus. Generally, I expect:
 
a) lower CRB into year-end
b) higher $US into year-end followed by 
resumption of decline
c) higher interest rates into year-end 
followed by reversal into declining rates
d) sideways to lower trending equities into 
year-end followed by major decline into 2006
 
In short, I expect a market climate which 
is going to be very difficult for investors but interesting for quick-footed 
traders. 
 
Earl
 
<BLOCKQUOTE 
>
  ----- Original Message ----- 
  <DIV 
  >From: 
  <A title=profitok@xxxxxxxxxxxxx 
  href="">profitok 
  To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
  href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
  
  Sent: Friday, May 21, 2004 6:19 PM
  Subject: Re: [RT] NW 5/19 Update
  
  very true
  this 5% down in crb is just temporary pull back
  the trend is still up
  Ben
  <BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr 
  >
    ----- Original Message ----- 
    <DIV 
    >From: 
    Norman 
    Winski 
    To: <A 
    title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
    href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
    
    Sent: Friday, May 21, 2004 2:52 
AM
    Subject: Re: [RT] NW 5/19 Update
    
     
    <BLOCKQUOTE 
    >
      ----- Original Message ----- 
      <DIV 
      >From: 
      <A title=profitok@xxxxxxxxxxxxx 
      href="">profitok 
      To: <A 
      title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
      href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
      
      Sent: Friday, May 21, 2004 1:35 
      AM
      Subject: Re: [RT] NW 5/19 
Update
      
      Hello
      I bought long term calls on gold and silver
      crb is not correctly forecast price inflation
      gas is already $3  a gallon!!
      my food bill in 1 year is up 57%
      my health  cost 27%
      Ben,
       
        CRB rose 58% from Oct. 2001 to March 2004.  CRB 
      has dropped 5% March 04 to present.  
       
      Regards,
       
      Norman







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