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----- Original Message -----
From: <A
title=mike-burk@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Mike Burk ; <A
title=mike-burk@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Mike Burk
To: <A title=mike-burk@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Mike Burk
Sent: Tuesday, April 06, 2004 8:31 PM
Subject: Gordon Harms report
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face="Courier New"><SPAN
>
4/2/04 MARKET CLOSE
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face="Courier New"><SPAN
>
TIMING IS EVERYTHING
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size=2>
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>MARKET CLIMATE/OUTLOOK-
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Low Interest Rates<SPAN
>
-Bullish
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Gross Domestic Product<SPAN
> -Bullish Up 4.1%
was Up 8.2%
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>S&P500 Expected Earnings<SPAN
> -Bullish $63.22 up from
$61.98
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Trailing S&P earnings<SPAN
> -Bearish
$49.08 up from $38.58
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Investor Contrary Sentiment -Neutral 1 Bear, 2 Neutral
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>VALUATION: Unfavorable
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Estimated S&P500 P/E for the coming year is <B
>18.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>The S&P500 P/E ratio is <B
>23(4 to 20 is range: 1870 to
1997)
<FONT
face="Courier New"> based on
trailing earnings. Trailing P/E was 45 in April 2002.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>S&P500 market value is 3.52 times book value. Was 3.42 last
week.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Dollar index is down 27.47% from 1/31/02 high. Was down
26.06%.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>TREND: Favorable
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>SP-CP is 7.52% above 1062 the 200sma which is rising. Was
4.71%.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Oct through May is seasonally favorable on average.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Stock Value Index is 4.03, was 4.21. Buy greater than 1.03.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>S&P500 is 54% UNDERVALUED below an estimated 2452 fair
value,
<FONT
face="Courier New"> based on
historical S&P 500 earnings, P/E and US30 bond yield.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>S&P500 annual earnings growth is 75%/year. Low -51.41% on
4/19/02.
<FONT
face="Courier New"> Long term
S&P earnings growth rate average is near 6%.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>S&P500 Inflation adjusted real dividend yield is -0.17%.
<FONT
face="Courier New"> Prior week was
-0.13%. BUY at greater than approx.-1.50%.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Three month ROC of M3 money is 2.34%, last week was 1.80%.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Short Term Index Cycles
-Bullish 8 of 8
are moving up.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>All six trading systems are holding mutual funds from 3/31/04.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>NASDAQ AD Sum Index<SPAN
>
–Bullish turned up 3/29/04
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>NYSE AD Sum Index<SPAN
>
–Bullish turned up 3/29/04
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>SP-CP is 0.70% above 1134 the 50sma which is falling. Was
-2.34%.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>TREND: Unfavorable
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Long Term Index Cycles
<SPAN
> -Bearish All 8 are moving
down.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>BONDS:
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>The 30 year U.S. Govt. bond real yield is 3.15%, last wk was 2.94%.
<FONT
face="Courier New"> The historical
average, real yield is near 3.00%.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>The average 30 year U. S. Govt. historical bond yield expected
<FONT
face="Courier New"> is 4.83%,
current yield is 4.98%. Was 4.77%.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>STBI Bonds are up 9.32% from 8/14/03. Was 12.32%.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Bd-Junk bonds are up 13.65% from 8/14/03. Was 13.10%.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Zero bonds are up 8.93% from 8/14/03. Was 11.65%.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>INFLATION: 3 week moving average
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>CPI, Feb is 1.83% (inflation), down from 1.86% in Jan. Low 1.20 7/02.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>PPI, Jan is 3.45% (inflation), down from 3.63% in Dec. Low -2.37
2/02.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>MARKET SENTIMENT INDICATORS:
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>CBOE Equity Total Vol. Put/Call Ratio: .58, last week was .65.
<FONT
face="Courier New"> Market: Bullish
> 0.60 and Bearish < 0.30
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>Market Vane(Commodity/Futures): 66% Bullish, last week was 61%
Bullish.
<FONT
face="Courier New"> Market: Bullish
< 25% and Bearish > 65%
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>AAII 55.2% bull and 22.4% bear. 3 wk SMA Ratio = 0.81(Mkt
Neutral).
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>3 wk SMA Ratio > 1.10 = Bullish, >> Bullish = > 1.50, <
0.35 = Bearish
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>BEASLEY:OTC-C DOMINANT Neg Env, Score 9/15(IN > 4/15), IN<B
> 3/29/04.
<FONT
face="Courier New">
NYC-I <SPAN
> Pos
Env, Score 9/13(IN > 3/13), IN 8/12/03.
<FONT
face="Courier New">
Total score is 18 of 28, last weeks score was 10.
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>
<FONT
face="Courier New">CYCLES<SPAN
> 5 WEEK<SPAN
>
10 WEEK<SPAN
>
20 WEEK<SPAN
>
9 Month<SPAN
>
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>WIL-5 OB-Up,03/25/04<SPAN
> OS-Up,03/29/04<SPAN
> OS-Dn,02/05/04<SPAN
> <SPAN
> N-Dn,02/24/04
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>DJ-30 OB-Up,03/25/04<SPAN
> OS-Up,03/25/04<SPAN
> OS-Dn,02/03/04<SPAN
> <SPAN
> N-Dn,02/24/04
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>RUT-I OB-Up,03/25/04<SPAN
> OS-Up,03/25/04<SPAN
> OS-Dn,02/04/04 <SPAN
> OS-Dn,02/09/04
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>NDX-X OB-Up,03/25/04<SPAN
> OS-Up,03/25/04<SPAN
> OS-Dn,02/05/04<SPAN
> OS-Dn,02/06/04
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>N = Stoch >20 <80, OS = Stoch <20 OUT/Buy, <st1:place
w:st="on">OB = Stoch >80 Hold/Sell
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>SECTOR Averages ranked by percent gain from 3/11/03:(Last intermed.
low)
<FONT
face="Courier New"><SPAN
> <SPAN
> Latin<SPAN
> 85.8<SPAN
> Utilities
39.0
<FONT
face="Courier New"><SPAN
>
Micro
84.1
Energy <SPAN
> 38.0
<FONT
face="Courier New"><SPAN
>
Emerge <SPAN
> 81.7<SPAN
>
Bd-Junk
21.5
<FONT
face="Courier New"><SPAN
>
HiTech <SPAN
> <SPAN
> 77.8<SPAN
> Bd-US<SPAN
> <SPAN
> <SPAN
> 3.1
<FONT
face="Courier New"><SPAN
>
Precious 76.0<SPAN
> Bd-Zero
<SPAN
> 2.1
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>FUNDS: SCHUS.Fam(1071) ranked from 3/11/03:(Last intermed.
low)
<FONT
face="Courier New"> <SPAN
> <SPAN
> UAPI<SPAN
> <SPAN
> 185.6<SPAN
> RYAI<SPAN
>
-38.9
<FONT
face="Courier New">
WCPI<SPAN
> <SPAN
> 167.1<SPAN
> POTS<SPAN
>
-41.0
<FONT
face="Courier New">
INPI<SPAN
> 164.8<SPAN
> POSS<SPAN
>
-48.3
<FONT
face="Courier New">
JAMF<SPAN
> <SPAN
> 164.4<SPAN
> URPI<SPAN
> <SPAN
>
-55.2
<FONT
face="Courier New">
UMPI<SPAN
> <SPAN
> 138.1<SPAN
> RYVN<SPAN
> <SPAN
>
-64.9
<FONT
face="Courier New"> <SPAN
> <SPAN
>
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>SYSTEM(NCALPHA)...TRADE....C/MDY..HOLD......G/L......ANN/MDD....ONE
YEAR
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>SHARP(Microc2x)...3/31/04.....2...SHARP.....1.81.....50.8/7.9.......58.0
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>LOSDF(Microc2x)...3/31/04.....2...LOSDF.....1.81.....40.4/9.1.......47.3
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>MDSDF(Microc2x)...3/31/04.....2...MDSDF.....1.81.....49.4/18.2......41.2
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>NCALP(Microc2x)...3/31/04.....2...NCALP.....1.81.....58.1/12.1......50.8
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>S&P500(Microc2x)..3/31/04.....2...S&P500....1.39.....14.5/9.3.......25.9
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>OTC-C(Microc2x)...3/31/04.....2...OTC-C.....3.16.....32.4/16.7......40.4
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>S&P500 Buy/Hold...4/02/03...252...SP500..............
9.6/49.2......29.5
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>OTC-C
Buy/Hold....4/02/03...252...OTC-C..............11.2/77.9......47.1
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>SHARP:PRCG,RSPF,HRTV
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>LOSDF:PRCG,HRTV,RSPF
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>MDSDF:PRCG,HRTV,RSPF
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>NCALP:PRCG,HRTV,RSPF
<FONT face="Courier New"
size=2>
<IMG
src="gif00106.gif">
<IMG
src="gif00107.gif">
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