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----- Original Message -----
From: <A
title=mike-burk@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Mike Burk ; <A
title=mike-burk@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Mike Burk
To: <A title=mike-burk@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Mike Burk
Sent: Monday, March 29, 2004 10:04 PM
Subject: Gordon Harms report
<A
name=OLE_LINK1><FONT
face="Courier New"><SPAN
>
3/26/04 MARKET CLOSE
<SPAN
><FONT
size=2><SPAN
>
TIMING IS EVERYTHING
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>MARKET CLIMATE/OUTLOOK-
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>Low Interest Rates<SPAN
>
-Bullish
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>Gross Domestic Product<SPAN
> -Bullish Up 4.1%
was Up 8.2%
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>S&P500 Expected Earnings<SPAN
> -Bullish $63.22 up from
$61.98
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>Trailing S&P earnings<SPAN
> <SPAN
> -Bearish $49.08 up from
$38.58
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>Investor Contrary Sentiment -Neutral 1 Bull, 2
Neutral
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>VALUATION: Unfavorable
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>Estimated S&P500 P/E for the coming year is <B
>18.
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>The S&P500 P/E ratio is <B
>23(4 to 20 is range: 1870 to
1997)
<SPAN
><FONT
size=2>
based on trailing earnings. Trailing P/E was 45 in April
2002.
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>S&P500 market value is 3.42 times book value. Was
3.42 last week.
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>Dollar index is down 26.06% from 1/31/02 high. Was
down 27.11%.
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>TREND: Favorable
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>SP-CP is 4.71% above 1058 the 200sma which is rising.
Was 5.11%.
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>Oct through May is seasonally favorable on
average.
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>Stock Value Index is 4.21, was 4.14. Buy greater than
1.03.
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>S&P500 is 55% UNDERVALUED below an estimated 2452
fair value,
<SPAN
><FONT
size=2>
based on historical S&P 500 earnings, P/E and US30 bond
yield.
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>S&P500 annual earnings growth is 75%/year. Low
-51.41% on 4/19/02.
<SPAN
><FONT
size=2>
Long term S&P earnings growth rate average is near
6%.
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>S&P500 Inflation adjusted real dividend yield is
-0.13%.
<SPAN
><FONT
size=2>
Prior week was -0.13%. BUY at greater than
approx.-1.50%.
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>Three month ROC of M3 money is 1.80%, last week was
1.33%.
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>Short Term Index Cycles<SPAN
> <SPAN
> <SPAN
> Bullish 7 of 8 are moving
up.
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>TREND: Unfavorable
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>All six trading systems are holding money funds from
3/23/04.
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>SP-CP is 2.34% below 1135 the 50sma which is falling.
Was -2.41%.
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>Long Term Index Cycles<SPAN
> <SPAN
> <SPAN
> -Bearish All 8 are moving
down.
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>NASDAQ AD Sum Index<SPAN
>
–Bearish turned down
3/8/04
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>NYSE AD Sum Index <SPAN
> <SPAN
> –Bearish turned down
3/9/04
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>BONDS:
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>The 30 year U.S. Govt. bond real yield is 2.94%, last
wk was 2.88%.
<SPAN
><FONT
size=2>
The historical average, real yield is near
3.00%.
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>The average 30 year U. S. Govt. historical bond yield
expected
<SPAN
><FONT
size=2> is
4.83%, current yield is 4.77%. Was 4.71%.
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>STBI Bonds are up 12.32% from 8/14/03. Was
12.95%.
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>Bd-Junk bonds are up 13.10% from 8/14/03. Was
13.35%.
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>Zero bonds are up 11.65% from 8/14/03. Was
12.13%.
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>INFLATION: 3 week moving
average
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>CPI, Feb is 1.83% (inflation), down from 1.86% in Jan.
Low 1.20 7/02.
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>PPI, Jan is 3.45% (inflation), down from 3.63% in Dec.
Low -2.37 2/02.
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>MARKET SENTIMENT INDICATORS:
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>CBOE Equity Total Vol. Put/Call Ratio: .65, last week
was .79.
<SPAN
><FONT
size=2>
Market: Bullish > 0.60 and Bearish <
0.30
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>Market Vane(Commodity/Futures): 61% Bullish, last week
was 63% Bullish.
<SPAN
><FONT
size=2>
Market: Bullish < 25% and Bearish >
65%
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>AAII 31.5% bull and 42.6% bear. 3 wk SMA Ratio =
0.95(Mkt Neutral).
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>3 wk SMA Ratio > 1.10 = Bullish, >> Bullish =
> 1.50, < 0.35 = Bearish
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>BEASLEY:OTC-C<SPAN
>
Neg Env, Score 3/15(IN > 4/15), <B
>OUT 3/11/04.
<SPAN
><FONT
size=2><SPAN
> <SPAN
> NYC-I DOMINANT Pos Env, Score 7/13(IN
> 3/13), IN 8/12/03.
<SPAN
><FONT
size=2><SPAN
> Total score is 10
of 28, last weeks score was 10.
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>
<SPAN
><FONT
size=2>CYCLES<SPAN
> 5 WEEK<SPAN
>
10 WEEK<SPAN
>
20 WEEK<SPAN
>
9 Month<SPAN
>
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>WIL-5
N-Up,03/25/04<SPAN
> OS-Dn,03/08/04<SPAN
> OS-Dn,02/05/04<SPAN
> <SPAN
> N-Dn,02/24/04
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>DJ-30
N-Up,03/25/04<SPAN
> OS-Up,03/25/04<SPAN
> OS-Dn,02/03/04<SPAN
> <SPAN
> N-Dn,02/24/04
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>RUT-I
N-Up,03/25/04<SPAN
> OS-Up,03/25/04<SPAN
> OS-Dn,02/04/04 <SPAN
> OS-Dn,02/09/04
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>NDX-X
N-Up,03/25/04<SPAN
> OS-Up,03/25/04<SPAN
> OS-Dn,02/05/04<SPAN
> OS-Dn,02/06/04
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>N = Stoch >20 <80, OS = Stoch <20 OUT/Buy,
OB = Stoch >80
Hold/Sell
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>SECTOR Averages ranked by percent gain from
3/11/03:(Last intermed. low)
<SPAN
><FONT
size=2><SPAN
> <SPAN
>
Latin
77.2
DJ-30 <SPAN
> <SPAN
> 35.7
<SPAN
><FONT
size=2><SPAN
>
Micro
76.5
Energy <SPAN
> 33.9
<SPAN
><FONT
size=2><SPAN
>
Emerge <SPAN
> 74.0<SPAN
>
Bd-Junk
20.9
<SPAN
><FONT
size=2><SPAN
>
Precious 72.0<SPAN
>
Bd-Zero <SPAN
> 4.7
<SPAN
><FONT
size=2><SPAN
>
Japan <SPAN
> 69.9<SPAN
> Bd-US<SPAN
> <SPAN
> 4.2
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>FUNDS: SCHUS.Fam(1071) ranked from 3/11/03:(Last
intermed. low)
<SPAN
><FONT
size=2>
<SPAN
> WCPI<SPAN
> <SPAN
> 161.8<SPAN
> RYAI<SPAN
>
-35.6
<SPAN
><FONT
size=2><SPAN
> <SPAN
> UAPI<SPAN
> <SPAN
> 157.5<SPAN
> POTS<SPAN
>
-37.8
<SPAN
><FONT
size=2><SPAN
> <SPAN
> JAMF<SPAN
> 146.6<SPAN
> POSS<SPAN
>
-45.4
<SPAN
><FONT
size=2><SPAN
> <SPAN
> INPI<SPAN
> <SPAN
> 136.1<SPAN
> URPI<SPAN
> <SPAN
>
-52.5
<SPAN
><FONT
size=2><SPAN
> <SPAN
> UMPI<SPAN
> <SPAN
> 120.9<SPAN
> RYVN<SPAN
> <SPAN
>
-61.0
<SPAN
><FONT
size=2><SPAN
> <SPAN
> <SPAN
>
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New"
size=2>SYSTEM(NCALPHA)...TRADE....C/MDY..HOLD......G/L......ANN/MDD....ONE
YEAR
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New"
size=2>SHARP(Microc2x)...3/23/04.....3...FGRXX.......0.....50.8/7.9.......57.1
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New"
size=2>LOSDF(Microc2x)...3/23/04.....3...FGRXX.......0.....40.4/9.1.......45.9
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New"
size=2>MDSDF(Microc2x)...3/23/04.....3...FGRXX.......0.....49.4/18.2......40.6
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New"
size=2>NCALP(Microc2x)...3/23/04.....3...FGRXX.......0.....58.1/12.1......49.6
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New"
size=2>S&P500(Microc2x)..3/23/04.....3...FGRXX.......0.....14.5/9.3.......25.6
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New"
size=2>OTC-C(Microc2x)...3/23/04.....3...FGRXX.......0.....32.4/16.7......36.9
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>S&P500
Buy/Hold...3/26/03...252...SP500.............
9.6/49.2......27.2
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>OTC-C
Buy/Hold....3/26/03...252...OTC-C.............11.2/77.9......41.1
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>SHARP:FGRXX
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>LOSDF:FGRXX
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>MDSDF:FGRXX
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>NCALP:FGRXX
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2> <IMG
src="gif00100.gif">
<SPAN
><FONT
face="Courier New" size=2>
<SPAN
><IMG
src="gif00101.gif">
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