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----- Original Message -----
From: <A
title=mike-burk@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Mike Burk
To: <A title=mike-burk@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">Mike Burk
Sent: Saturday, March 13, 2004 6:22 PM
Subject: 3/13 Report
<A
name=OLE_LINK2><A
name=OLE_LINK5><SPAN
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>Technical market report for March
13, 2004The good news is:
<LI class=MsoNormal
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>The number of new lows remains
insignificant.
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>The secondaries have been
outperforming the blue chips.
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>Last weeks sell off left the
market over sold and ripe for a
bounce.
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size=3>
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>During a longer term upward move
there will be sudden sharp declines.
As the upward cycle matures prices flatten out then slowly begin to turn
downward (tops form slowly while bottoms are usually abrupt).<SPAN
> The Russell 2000 (R2K) shown in the
chart below looked like it was forming flattening top.<SPAN
> There was a high in late January and two
failed run ups approaching the January high since then.<SPAN
>
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><v:shapetype id=_x0000_t75
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aspectratio="t"><v:shape id=_x0000_i1025
type="#_x0000_t75"><v:imagedata
src=""
o:title="R2K"><IMG
src="gif00062.gif">
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>The NASDAQ composite, shown below,
appears more bearish with what appears to be a well defined pattern of lower
highs and lower lows since late
January.
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><v:shape id=_x0000_i1026
type="#_x0000_t75"><v:imagedata
src=""
o:title="OTC"><IMG
src="gif00063.gif">
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>I forecasted an up week last week,
expecting the market to continue higher for several days before turning downward
later in the week.
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>That interpretation was obviously
wrong.
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>The sharp sell off during the first
four trading days of last week, without a significant increase in the number of
new lows, is typical of an advancing market not one approaching a
top.
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>The secondaries normally lead both
up and down.
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>The chart below shows the Russell
2000 and the S&P 500 (SPX) with a FastTrack relative strength indicator
called Accutrack. Accutrack
shows the R2K held up well relative to the SPX in the recent sell off supporting
the idea the recent sell off was a decline in an up
market.
<SPAN
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><v:shape id=_x0000_i1027
type="#_x0000_t75"><v:imagedata
src=""
o:title="FT-R2K-SPX"><IMG
src="gif00064.gif">
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>The decline that ended Thursday was
one of the worst since the advance began.
The chart below shows the NASDAQ 100 (NDX) with an indicator that shows
the percentage of the previous 5 trading days that were up.<SPAN
> For the indicator to reach the bottom of
the screen there have to be 5 consecutive down days in the index.<SPAN
> Last Thursday marked the second time in
the past year that there have been 5 consecutive down days in the index, the
last time was in late June 2003.
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><v:shape id=_x0000_i1028
type="#_x0000_t75"><v:imagedata
src=""
o:title="NDX-Pct-Up"><IMG
src="gif00065.gif">
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>The chart below provides additional
evidence of how over sold the market is (especially the technology issues that
make up the NDX). The chart,
covering the past year and a half, shows the NDX (red) and an indicator of new
lows (blue). The indicator,
calculated from the component issues of the NDX, is a 10% trend of new lows
calculated over the past 6 weeks (rather than 52 weeks as reported by the
exchanges). The indicator is
plotted on an inverted Y axis so an increasing number of new lows move the
indicator downward while a decreasing number of new lows move the indicator
upward (up is good and down is bad).
As of last Thursday the indictor was at its lowest level in over a year
and a half and Friday it turned upward.
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><v:shape id=_x0000_i1029
type="#_x0000_t75"><v:imagedata
src=""
o:title="NDX-NL-380days"><IMG
src="gif00066.gif">
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>If this interpretation is correct,
the market should be very near (or already in) a substantial move
upward.
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>I expect the major indices will be
higher on Friday March 19 than they were on Friday March
12.
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>This report is free to anyone who
wants it, so please tell your friends.They can sign up
at:http://www.guaranteed-profits.comIf it is not for you, reply with
REMOVE in the subject line.Thank you,Mike Burk W5/L4/T1<BR
><BR
>
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