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Hey Everyone.... if your interested in Hurst or just in the
direction of markets, Jim does an excellent job covering the stock indexes in
his market letter.
Just to give an alternative view though Jim, I think the
market needs some sort of fresh news to get going again. There is a lot of
insider selling, mutual fund managers taking some money off the table (despite
good fund inflows), and too many new issues. All this supply is going to be
tough to get through without fresh impetus.
Not to mention the market may be starting to build in a
political risk component. Overall the market prefers Bush protectionism
to Kerry protectionism I think.
So while were down the largest 3 day move since
September, I doubt we'll see it threaten new highs again without some
fresh impetus. Mid quarter upgraded guidance from some of the important
corporate sectors might do it. Failing that I don't see it.
As well, since it looks like your just calling for a short
term bounce, we could both be right.
On a somewhat related front Kyoto reported today that the US
has officially asked (the Bush administration rarely "asks" anything, but that
was the euphenism used) the Japanese to stop intervening in the FX markets.
This coupled with Japanese year end at the end of the month, we might well see a
total reversal of flows as the Japanese start to repatriate funds.
The who bond house of cards where the Japanese sold low
yielding JGB bonds, took the proceeds and bought the dollars to push the yen
lower, and then bought the higher US yielding bonds with the dollars, maybe
be starting to unravel. While everyone is watching the Fed or NFP numbers right
now, its not going to be the driver for the immediate horizon in the bond market
imo.
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Jim
Curry
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Wednesday, March 10, 2004 2:54
PM
Subject: [RT] SPX 60 Min
60 Min SPX (detrended slightly) - Updated on the projected path for the
next few days
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