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Howard,
Sorry, but I'm having too much fun in "retirement" to write a book. That
will have wait for another incarnation.
You raise a healthcare issue which has raged for many years ... should a
statistically healthy group (the young) be required to maintain health coverage
so as to homogenize the lifecycle risks and costs. The battle lines are clear
... without compulsory coverage, the only people who purchase coverage is the
higher risk portion of the population. On a lifecycle basis, the population
tends not to purchase coverage until middle age. There are some specious facets
to this such as fact that parents, who are financially able, will purchase
coverage to cover childcare expenses. Among developed countries, the US is
one of the few which does not have compulsory national coverage.
There is another trend which has become evident here in the US ... the
emasculation of benefits, especially healthcare. Many companies, most
predominantly in the retail field (led by Wal-Mart), maintain a large cadre
of workers whose hours are limited so that they are not eligible for
benefits. The highest cost benefit is health insurance. The most recent
battle was engaged in CA where the large food chains, facing a pitched battle
with Wal-Mart, set out to reduce their benefit costs. However, it is important
to note that this is not happening just in retail but in every industry as
companies seek to cut their costs to the bone. Even the retired do not escape
the knife as companies aggressively scale back existing retirement benefits and
raise premium sharing and co-pays. Given the high rate of cost healthcare cost
increases, I'm not sure they can be blamed, however this trend is exacerbating
the national healthcare coverage problem.
I think our system, which has largely relied upon employer-sponsored
healthcare, has brought about a healthcare system in which the consumer has too
small a stake in reducing costs. When it costs little or nothing (as in days
gone by) to use the healthcare system, you will not discriminate about the
costs. I do like the idea of the new Health Savings Accounts in which one buys a
catastrophic policy and puts the "savings" into an account to offset some of the
non-catastrophic costs and/or reap the benefits of a healthy life-style. This
gives the HSA owner the incentive to use healthcare judiciously ... not that any
sane person would invest the time to wait in a doctor's office absent a pressing
need.
However, those who consume lots of fats and sugars and carry around an
extra 20%+ in weight (a large part of the American population) are not likely to
jump all over this "opportunity". This issue is one which probably gets to the
crux of American healthcare. Go almost anywhere else in the world e.g. Europe
and you will not see the degree of obesity seen here in the US.
Earl
<BLOCKQUOTE dir=ltr
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Howard Hopkins
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Sunday, March 07, 2004 8:16
PM
Subject: RE: healthcare was RE: [RT]
sp500/nasdaq top
<SPAN
>Earl and all <SPAN
class=SpellE>RTs,
<SPAN
>
<SPAN
>First, the threads of
the last week have created the most chatter I’ve seen in this group for over a
year. I don’t know if that has in
deep meaning of market direction but I think it’s good for <SPAN
class=GramE>all of
us.
<SPAN
>
<SPAN
>Second, if Earl is
writing or has written a book I want to<SPAN
> know about it .<SPAN
> Please post title <SPAN
class=GramE>and where it
can be purchased!?
<SPAN
>
<SPAN
>Third, Earl mentioned
the often quoted statistic of 40% of the population being uninsured. <SPAN
> I have no idea if this number is
correct but I do have a couple of comments:
<P class=MsoNormal
><FONT
face=Arial color=navy size=2><SPAN
><SPAN
>a)<SPAN
>
<FONT face=Arial color=navy
size=2>I was in
the restaurant business for over 16 years (I needed an income for my trading
habit!). According to <A
href="">http://www.restaurant.org/research/forecast.cfm
, there are 12 million people in the
<FONT face=Arial color=navy
size=2><SPAN
>US<FONT
face=Arial color=navy size=2><SPAN
> employed in the food
service industry. Very few
corporate restaurant chains and fewer private restaurants provide health
insurance due to the transitory nature of the staff, cost/hassle of
administration of a health plan, and the cost of the insurance itself.<SPAN
> Most servers and bartenders make ample
cash to pay for private health insurance.<SPAN
> As one of those people, I made an
economic choice and went without health insurance until I was 38 years at
which point I got married and was covered by my wife’s insurance.<SPAN
> Before that time I and most of my
co-workers could have paid for coverage but instead chose to have digital
cable tv, to go out to dinner countless times a
month, to drive a newer model car, etc…
Many of the “40%” without coverage could have coverage if they
sacrificed some of today’s “necessities”.
<P class=MsoNormal
><FONT
face=Arial color=navy size=2><SPAN
><SPAN
>b)<SPAN
>
<FONT face=Arial color=navy
size=2>As Earl
mentioned we already have universal healthcare. <SPAN
> A female server once told me not to
waste my money on health insurance because “…emergency rooms have to treat
you. I go to the hospital all the
time and don’t pay for shit.”
<P class=MsoNormal
><FONT
face=Arial color=navy size=2><SPAN
><SPAN
>c)<SPAN
>
<FONT face=Arial color=navy
size=2><SPAN
>Insurance was created
to “protect against unexpected catastrophic loss”.<SPAN
> Today’s insurance is expected to treat
any and all medical problems not just catastrophic losses. <SPAN
> I’m betting if minimum deductibles were
raised to $5,000 with no co-insurance than people would go to the doctors a
lot less frequently! And Econ 100
teaches that less demand = lower prices…. For services rendered and insurance
itself.
<SPAN
>
<SPAN
>Just a few thoughts /
comments.<SPAN
><SPAN
>
<SPAN
>
<SPAN
>Howard
<SPAN
>
<SPAN
>-----Original
Message-----From: EarlA
[mailto:earl.a@xxxxxxxxxx] <SPAN
>Sent: Sunday, March 07, 2004 4:10
PMTo:
realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx<SPAN
>Subject: Re: healthcare was RE: [RT]
sp500/nasdaq top
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>On a positive note, Michael, I don't
really believe that ethics have disappeared but have been in a cyclical
decline which will be reversed after the business of payback has been
finished. This is where the intermingling of cycles, markets, crowd
psychology, and politics gets really interesting. I think you are correct ...
nearly every country in the world has been over-stimulating it's economy in
the hopes of avoiding unpleasantness. This, of course, has elevated
"idolatry" as paper assets have become king. Ultimately, the false gods
will be exposed and payback will arrive. In my book, it is a matter of "when"
and not "if", but the "when" can take a long
time.
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>Earl
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
<SPAN
>----- Original Message -----
<FONT
face=Arial size=2><SPAN
>From:<FONT
face=Arial size=2> <A
title=MikeSuesserott@xxxxxxxxxxx
href="">MichaelSuesserott
<FONT face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
>To:<FONT
face=Arial size=2> <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
<FONT face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
>Sent:<FONT
face=Arial size=2> Sunday,
March 07, 2004 1:55 PM
<FONT face=Arial
size=2><SPAN
>Subject:<FONT
face=Arial size=2> Re:
healthcare was RE: [RT] sp500/nasdaq top
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3><SPAN
>
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3>These problems (health care, tort
reform, etc.) are there, but I think theyare symptoms of a fundamental
disease that has gripped not only the US but,more or less, every nation
on the globe, my own (Germany) included. Thisdisease is the partial loss
of work ethics, or even of ethics in general -in government, law courts,
business, media, everywhere. IMHO, we need toreturn to "Plain living and
high thinking", as Wordsworth put it more than200 years ago.At
the risk of getting back a few scornful comments, here is
Wordsworth'spoem, written in 1802. I confess it touches a chord in me;
maybe it will bemeaningful to some of you as well.O FRIEND! I
know not which way I must lookFor comfort, being, as I am,
oppressed,To think that now our life is only dressedFor show; mean
handy-work of craftsman, cook,Or groom! - We must run glittering like a
brookIn the open sunshine, or we are unblest:The wealthiest man
among us is the best:No grandeur now in nature or in bookDelights
us. Rapine, avarice, expense,This is idolatry; and these we
adore:Plain living and high thinking are no more:The homely beauty
of the good old causeIs gone; our peace, our fearful innocence,And
pure religion breathing household laws.Have a nice
Sunday!Michael Suesserott
<FONT face="Times New Roman"
size=3><BR
><BR
>
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