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Probability does not matter itself. You may have only 30% winning
trades and be successful, and 90% wins and still be unsuccessful.
Math. expectations of a trade what is count:
G = p*avg_win + (1-p)*avg_loss,
where G is expectation of a trade,
avg_win, avg_loss - average win/loss respectively,
p - probability of winning trade.
Best regards,
Alex mailto:alex_bell@xxxxxxx
Sunday, March 7, 2004, 10:39:11 PM, you wrote:
mi> One can not predict the future with 100% reliability, but one can trade with
mi> a very high degree of probability, 80%+. As for owning the world, not with
mi> the current liquidity.
mi> ----- Original Message -----
mi> From: "RB" <rhodes@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
mi> To: <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
mi> Sent: Sunday, March 07, 2004 1:41 PM
mi> Subject: Re: [RT] nasdaq and sp500 top
>> The future can not be predicted period. If one could, they would own the
>> world. But, since one can't, we are in the same boat. :) Run don't walk
>> from someone saying this or that predicts this or that.
>>
>> ----- Original Message -----
>> From: "Alex Bell" <alex_bell@xxxxxxx>
>> To: "profitok" <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> Sent: Sunday, March 07, 2004 7:01 AM
>> Subject: Re: [RT] nasdaq and sp500 top
>>
>>
>> > Hello Ben,
>> >
>> > I have overlaid it over Wilshire 5000 index portfolio (symbol WINDX).
>> > See attached. As far as I can see (and of course I may be missing
>> > smth.) for the last year the study predicted about 5 tops that didn't
>> > occur and suggested no one long (didn't predict any bottom).
>> >
>> > Best regards,
>> > Alex mailto:alex_bell@xxxxxxx
>> >
>> >
>> > Sunday, March 7, 2004, 8:14:26 AM, you wrote:
>> >
>> > p> Hello
>> >
>> > p> this is my long term trading
>> > p> it is done on the weekly bars of the whilshire 5000
>> > p> (almost all stocks traded)
>> >
>> > p> when the line reaches the top it is a good time to exit your
>> conservative money and 401K and IRA
>> >
>> > p> right now we are VERY close to a top (max upside potential is 250
>> whilshire 5000 points)
>> >
>> > p> the chrt is reduced to a 1/10 of value (current close 11314)
>> > p> Ben
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> > Yahoo! Groups Links
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>> >
>>
>>
>>
>>
>>
>> Yahoo! Groups Links
>>
>>
>>
>>
mi> Yahoo! Groups Links
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