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Howard, I've shifted my emphasis a good deal and I'm doing very little ST
trading.
a) During past 9 months have built a major position in energy stocks, many
of which are high dividend paying Canadian Royalty Trusts with smattering of
American Trusts, Drillers, E&P, Services and even a bit of coal. Short term
twists and turns aside, I think energy is in a long term bull market ... the
major investment play for the next few years, if not longer.
b) Heavy position in muni-CEF's is gone ... I don't believe the government
CPI numbers and the economic pumping is sure to raise inflation. Only long
position I hold in bonds is in FAX which pays north of 6 1/2% ... will probably
add on A$ correction. I still poke at bond futures now and then ... currently
light long for a bounce, then looking to put on shorts to hold.
c) Currencies ... closed all longs in foreign currencies 6-8 weeks ago
missing the last leg of the rally. I think that the dollar decline is in danger
of reversing for a correction. I may attempt a swing short in CD or EU at some
point. I think most commodities are quite likely to reverse course when
dollar corrects.
d) Gold stocks ... have a small position but the 415-430 area has contained
4 major rallies on the monthly futures chart since 1990. The current gold rally
is extended and smack in middle of strong resistance. I think 415-430 will
eventually become support but not before a good correction.
I've lightened up to core holding.
e) Equities ... closed out my put position around 5 weeks ago when it
became clear that we were not going to get the expected position. The entries
were near perfect and I would have done extremely well had I traded out near
support instead of trying to hold for a major correction. As it was, I swallow
hard and took the only significant loss of 2004. The 50% retracement of the ATH
SPX high (1162) and the double tops of early 20002 (1173) are beckoning the
market and I think we'll get there. A correction is in the cards but nothing to
indicate it will be major (not yet anyway) although risks are high. Have some
modest longs on technicals with tight leash. Once 1162-1173 range has been hit,
I will go flat all trading positions and look to add to core holdings in energy.
Am looking for a smack down in China to re-enter some longs there.
That's about it.
Earl
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Howard Hopkins
To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Wednesday, January 21, 2004 7:34
AM
Subject: [RT] Earl
Earl,I haven't seen any posts from you recently.
What your analysis telling you on the stock indexes?
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