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bull. The market
has been in a upward slope (I guess that's a bull market, right ?) because
general PRICE LEVELS have increased over the past 100 years. It has nothing to
do with the relative value of stocks relative to other commodities or stores of
value like gold.
Best to show
de-trended slope lines.
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<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Ira
[mailto:mr.ira@xxxxxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Monday, November 17, 2003 10:27
AMTo: realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: Re: [RT]
INDU
Great chart. A keeper. It more
clearly shows that the market is still a bull. This is a logarithmic
chart, isn't it? This is the second leg up from the 74 low.
and the breakout over the impenetrable 1000 high of years gone by. Could
the 10,000 high be a replication of the 1000 high of years gone by? One
of the things to remember is that the Dow of the 20's is different from the
Dow of the 50s which is different then the Dow today. The divisor is
different and the volatility greater. The powers keep changing the
makeup of the Dow. The replacement of stocks and stock splits keep
reducing the divisor. So a 100 point move today is not comparable to 100
point move in the 60s, 70s, or 80s. The chart is labeled the Dow, but is
it a true chart or we comparing apples to oranges. In any case, a
move down to 5000 would be a little more then 50% retracement and the Dow is
in an up channel. Just one persons opinion. Ira
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Tony
Pylypuk
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Monday, November 17, 2003 5:09
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] INDU
Attached is a 103 year chart of INDU. It
more clearly shows the time frame within which I believe the current "4
year" bear channel operates.
With respect to Ira's observation that an
horizon greater than 4 years is bullish, I would note the chart suggests the
figure should be 15 years, more or less, measured from 2000.
FWIW
Tony Pylypuk
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----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Ira
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Monday, November 17, 2003 2:51
AM
Subject: Re: [RT] INDU
I think it is time to things in
perspective. Is this a bear market? It depends how you define
a bear market. Have a lot of people lost a lot of money?
Yes. Have a lot of people made a lot of money? Here is a
weekly chart. If this was a stock you would consider this just a 50%
retracement of a bullish move from the 1994 low. How much of a
retracement from the '87 low? or the '74 low? It is all in the
way you look at things. On a monthly chart the high in 2000 and the
low in '03 were both targets. Are there targets higher?
Yes. Are there targets lower? Yes. But on different time
frames. So whether this is a
bull or bear, whether it will go higher or lower is strictly dependent
upon where you view the picture. If you have a 4 year
horizon or longer, this is nothing more then a retracement in a long
running bull market. If you are looking at 4 years and shorter
you are in a bear market. So when you refer to bull or bear,
up or down, please reference the time frame you are talking
about. On the daily chart we have hit
targets and can look for a retracement of this move up from the March 10
and July 1 lows. Right now there is no sell signal, just an exit
scenario. I have no Entry Point for a down trade as yet on the daily
chart or the 60 min. The 15 min. and 3 are different stories.
So if you express an opinion, please reference it. Thank you, Ira.
---- Original Message -----
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>
<DIV
>From:
Mark
Simms
To: <A
title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Sunday, November 16, 2003
9:30 PM
Subject: RE: [RT] INDU
<FONT color=#0000ff
size=2>Uh.....we've been outside of either bullish channel for almost 18
months....
I think
the time alone invalidates any continuation of the "old" bull
trend.
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<FONT face=Tahoma
size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Tony Pylypuk
[mailto:tpylypuk@xxxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Sunday, November 16,
2003 9:21 PMTo: RealTradersSubject: [RT]
INDU
Attached is a chart of the DJIA.
Every bit of recent news is
bullish. The chart may suggest another
interpretation.
FWIW
Tony Pylypuk
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