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Re: [RT] INDU



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Great chart.  A keeper.  It more clearly 
shows that the market is still a bull.  This is a logarithmic chart, isn't 
it?   This is the second leg up from the 74 low.  and the 
breakout over the impenetrable 1000 high of years gone by.  Could the 
10,000 high be a replication of the 1000 high of years gone by?  One of the 
things to remember is that the Dow of the 20's is different from the Dow of the 
50s which is different then the Dow today.  The divisor is different and 
the volatility greater.  The powers keep changing the makeup of the 
Dow.  The replacement of stocks and stock splits keep reducing the 
divisor.  So a 100 point move today is not comparable to 100 point move in 
the 60s, 70s, or 80s.  The chart is labeled the Dow, but is it a true chart 
or we comparing apples to oranges.   In any case, a move down to 5000 
would be a little more then 50% retracement and the Dow is in an up 
channel.  Just one persons opinion.  Ira
<BLOCKQUOTE 
>
  ----- Original Message ----- 
  <DIV 
  >From: 
  Tony 
  Pylypuk 
  To: <A title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
  href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
  
  Sent: Monday, November 17, 2003 5:09 
  AM
  Subject: Re: [RT] INDU
  
  Attached is a 103 year chart of INDU.  It 
  more clearly shows the time frame within which I believe the current "4 year" 
  bear channel operates.  
   
  With respect to Ira's observation that an horizon 
  greater than 4 years is bullish, I would note the chart suggests the figure 
  should be 15 years, more or less, measured from 2000.
   
  FWIW
   
  Tony Pylypuk
  <BLOCKQUOTE 
  >
    ----- Original Message ----- 
    <DIV 
    >From: 
    Ira 
    
    To: <A 
    title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
    href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
    
    Sent: Monday, November 17, 2003 2:51 
    AM
    Subject: Re: [RT] INDU
    
    I think it is time to things in 
    perspective.  Is this a bear market?  It depends how you define a 
    bear market.  Have a lot of people lost a lot of money?  
    Yes.  Have a lot of people made a lot of money?  Here is a weekly 
    chart.  If this was a stock you would consider this just a 50% 
    retracement of a bullish move from the 1994 low.  How much of a 
    retracement from the '87 low?  or the '74 low?  It is all in the 
    way you look at things.  On a monthly chart the high in 2000 and the 
    low in '03 were both targets.  Are there targets higher?  
    Yes.  Are there targets lower?  Yes.  But on different time 
    frames.  So whether this is a bull 
    or bear, whether it will go higher or lower is strictly dependent upon where 
    you view the picture.    If you have a 4 year horizon or 
    longer, this is nothing more then a retracement in a long running bull 
    market.  If you are looking at 4 years and shorter you are in a 
    bear market.   So when you refer to bull or bear, up or down, 
    please reference the time frame you are talking 
    about.    On the daily chart we have hit 
    targets and can look for a retracement of this move up from the March 10 and 
    July 1 lows.  Right now there is no sell signal, just an exit 
    scenario.  I have no Entry Point for a down trade as yet on the daily 
    chart or the 60 min.  The 15 min. and 3 are different stories.  So 
    if you express an opinion, please reference it.  Thank you, Ira. 
     ---- Original Message ----- 
    <BLOCKQUOTE 
    >
      <DIV 
      >From: 
      Mark 
      Simms 
      To: <A 
      title=realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
      href="">realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
      
      Sent: Sunday, November 16, 2003 9:30 
      PM
      Subject: RE: [RT] INDU
      
      <FONT color=#0000ff 
      size=2>Uh.....we've been outside of either bullish channel for almost 18 
      months....
      I think the 
      time alone invalidates any continuation of the "old" bull 
      trend.
       
      <BLOCKQUOTE 
      >
        <FONT face=Tahoma 
        size=2>-----Original Message-----From: Tony Pylypuk 
        [mailto:tpylypuk@xxxxxxxxxxx]Sent: Sunday, November 16, 2003 
        9:21 PMTo: RealTradersSubject: [RT] 
        INDU
        Attached is a chart of the DJIA.  
        
         
        Every bit of recent news is bullish.  
        The chart may suggest another interpretation.
         
        FWIW
         
        Tony Pylypuk
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